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Serie A Saturday, October 10: 3 matches, odds and implied probabilities

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Serie A has 3 matches on Saturday, October 10. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeDrawAwayImplied
13:00Genoa vs Fiorentina3.133.322.2930.2% / 28.5% / 41.3%
16:00Inter Milan vs Parma1.148.7016.8883.5% / 10.9% / 5.6%
18:45Napoli vs Frosinone1.434.896.5466.2% / 19.4% / 14.5%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 22 books (Unibet (NL), Unibet (SE), LeoVegas (SE), Pinnacle, Betclic (FR), Winamax (DE)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

Genoa vs Fiorentina

13:00 UTC

The market leans Fiorentina at 41.3%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 15.5% on the widest side.

Inter Milan vs Parma

16:00 UTC

The market leans Inter Milan at 83.5%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 76.0% on the widest side.

Napoli vs Frosinone

18:45 UTC

The market leans Napoli at 66.2%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 33.9% on the widest side.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — Genoa vs Fiorentina: 30.2% vs 41.3%.
  • Most one-sided — Inter Milan vs Parma: the market gives Inter Milan 83.5%.
  • Where books disagree most — Inter Milan vs Parma: 76.0% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 5.6% across the slate.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-10-05 00:00 UTC. Odds move.

Serie A Saturday, October 10: 3 matches, odds and implied probabilities

Comments (2)

  • cedarlark59

    Inter Milan vs Parma with 76% spread between books seems wild, that's a huge difference for what should be such a one-sided match.

  • mantle323

    Genoa-Fiorentina looking like the real toss-up here with Fiorentina only at 41%, surprised it's that close given the odds.