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NCAAF Sunday, October 11: 4 matches, odds and implied probabilities

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NCAAF has 4 matches on Sunday, October 11. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeAwayImplied
00:00Purdue Boilermakers vs Minnesota Golden Gophers2.131.7344.8% / 55.2%
02:15Utah Utes vs Kansas Jayhawks1.135.9984.1% / 15.9%
02:30Arizona State Sun Devils vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors1.069.7390.2% / 9.8%
02:30Fresno State Bulldogs vs Boise State Broncos3.031.3931.5% / 68.5%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 9 books (Unibet (NL), Unibet (SE), LeoVegas (SE), BetOnline.ag, GTbets, MyBookie.ag). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

Purdue Boilermakers vs Minnesota Golden Gophers

00:00 UTC

The market leans Minnesota Golden Gophers at 55.2%. Prices come from 9 books, and they differ by 5.3% on the widest side.

Utah Utes vs Kansas Jayhawks

02:15 UTC

The market leans Utah Utes at 84.1%. Prices come from 9 books, and they differ by 6.9% on the widest side.

Arizona State Sun Devils vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

02:30 UTC

The market leans Arizona State Sun Devils at 90.2%. Prices come from 7 books, and they differ by 12.9% on the widest side.

Fresno State Bulldogs vs Boise State Broncos

02:30 UTC

The market leans Boise State Broncos at 68.5%. Prices come from 9 books, and they differ by 5.1% on the widest side.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — Purdue Boilermakers vs Minnesota Golden Gophers: 44.8% vs 55.2%.
  • Most one-sided — Arizona State Sun Devils vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: the market gives Arizona State Sun Devils 90.2%.
  • Where books disagree most — Arizona State Sun Devils vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: 12.9% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 4.8% across the slate.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-10-06 00:00 UTC. Odds move.

NCAAF Sunday, October 11: 4 matches, odds and implied probabilities

Comments (2)

  • brook145

    ASU-Hawaii spread is wild with that 12.9% variance across books, someone's definitely getting that one wrong.

  • slow2489

    Utah's 84% is crazy steep for Kansas, feels like there's value if the Jayhawks show up defensively that day.