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EPL Sunday, October 11: 3 matches, odds and implied probabilities

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EPL has 3 matches on Sunday, October 11. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeDrawAwayImplied
13:00Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest2.643.322.6936.0% / 28.7% / 35.3%
13:00Hull City vs Everton3.643.382.0826.1% / 28.1% / 45.8%
15:30Liverpool vs Manchester City2.563.702.5537.1% / 25.7% / 37.2%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 23 books (Codere (IT), Unibet (FR), Winamax (DE), 888sport, Betclic (FR), 1xBet). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest

13:00 UTC

The market can barely separate them — 36.0% against 35.3%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 14.4% on the widest side.

Hull City vs Everton

13:00 UTC

The market leans Everton at 45.8%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 16.4% on the widest side.

Liverpool vs Manchester City

15:30 UTC

The market can barely separate them — 37.1% against 37.2%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 11.7% on the widest side.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — Liverpool vs Manchester City: 37.1% vs 37.2%.
  • Most one-sided — Hull City vs Everton: the market gives Everton 45.8%.
  • Where books disagree most — Hull City vs Everton: 16.4% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 5.3% across the slate.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-10-06 00:00 UTC. Odds move.

EPL Sunday, October 11: 3 matches, odds and implied probabilities

Comments (2)

  • velvet1095

    Liverpool vs City being basically a coin flip despite the gap in the table is wild, feels like the market's being too generous to City.

  • spruce7185

    Hull at 26% to beat Everton seems wild given how inconsistent Everton's been lately, but I guess the bookies know something we don't.