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Ligue 1 Sunday, October 11: 3 matches, odds and implied probabilities

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Ligue 1 has 3 matches on Sunday, October 11. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeDrawAwayImplied
13:00Nice vs Strasbourg2.303.562.9241.1% / 26.5% / 32.4%
15:15Rennes vs Auxerre1.424.906.5266.3% / 19.3% / 14.5%
18:45Troyes vs Marseille3.823.851.8624.8% / 24.5% / 50.7%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 22 books (Pinnacle, 1xBet, Betclic (FR), Unibet (FR), Winamax (DE), Codere (IT)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

Nice vs Strasbourg

13:00 UTC

The market leans Nice at 41.1%. Prices come from 21 books, and they differ by 14.0% on the widest side.

Rennes vs Auxerre

15:15 UTC

The market leans Rennes at 66.3%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 31.6% on the widest side.

Troyes vs Marseille

18:45 UTC

The market leans Marseille at 50.7%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 11.9% on the widest side.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — Nice vs Strasbourg: 41.1% vs 32.4%.
  • Most one-sided — Rennes vs Auxerre: the market gives Rennes 66.3%.
  • Where books disagree most — Rennes vs Auxerre: 31.6% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 5.9% across the slate.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-10-06 00:00 UTC. Odds move.

Ligue 1 Sunday, October 11: 3 matches, odds and implied probabilities

Comments (2)

  • silver_hare

    Rennes being 66% favorites against Auxerre seems wild given the 31.6% spread between books, makes me wonder if one side knows something the others don't.

  • tidal_compass

    Marseille at 50.7% feels like a trap when Troyes has those 3.82 odds, that's a lot of value if they can nick a result at home.