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MLS Sunday, October 11: 6 matches, odds and implied probabilities

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MLS has 6 matches on Sunday, October 11. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeDrawAwayImplied
00:30Austin FC vs Nashville SC3.833.651.8324.1% / 25.4% / 50.5%
00:30Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo2.043.563.2545.4% / 26.0% / 28.5%
00:30Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers2.363.952.4939.2% / 23.5% / 37.3%
01:30Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes1.913.693.5148.5% / 25.1% / 26.4%
02:30Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC2.563.492.2634.9% / 25.6% / 39.5%
23:00St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy1.594.234.1456.9% / 21.3% / 21.8%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 20 books (Winamax (DE), Marathon Bet, 888sport, William Hill, 1xBet, Betclic (FR)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

Austin FC vs Nashville SC

00:30 UTC

The market leans Nashville SC at 50.5%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 25.4% on the widest side.

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo

00:30 UTC

The market leans Minnesota United FC at 45.4%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 19.0% on the widest side.

Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers

00:30 UTC

The market can barely separate them — 39.2% against 37.3%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 18.6% on the widest side.

Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes

01:30 UTC

The market leans Colorado Rapids at 48.5%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 26.2% on the widest side.

Los Angeles FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC

02:30 UTC

The market can barely separate them — 34.9% against 39.5%. Prices come from 18 books, and they differ by 161.8% on the widest side.

St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy

23:00 UTC

The market leans St. Louis City SC at 56.9%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 330.9% on the widest side.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers: 39.2% vs 37.3%.
  • Most one-sided — St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy: the market gives St. Louis City SC 56.9%.
  • Where books disagree most — St. Louis City SC vs LA Galaxy: 330.9% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 9.1% across the slate.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-10-06 00:00 UTC. Odds move.

MLS Sunday, October 11: 6 matches, odds and implied probabilities

Comments (2)

  • sepia_satchel26

    Colorado Rapids looking like the safest pick at 48.5% but that San Jose odds seem pretty good value if they can pull it off.

  • blue7006

    St. Louis City laying nearly 57% odds at home against LA Galaxy seems wild, that's a massive gap for an away team.