MLS has 9 matches on Thursday, October 15. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union | 2.38 | 3.67 | 2.25 | 36.9% / 24.0% / 39.1% |
| 00:30 | FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders FC | 1.63 | 3.79 | 3.95 | 54.3% / 23.3% / 22.4% |
| 00:30 | Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City | 1.24 | 5.50 | 8.21 | 72.7% / 16.4% / 11.0% |
| 00:30 | St. Louis City SC vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.60 | 3.49 | 2.15 | 33.9% / 25.2% / 40.9% |
| 01:30 | Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC | 1.94 | 3.41 | 3.07 | 45.4% / 25.9% / 28.7% |
| 01:30 | Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1.71 | 3.76 | 3.57 | 51.7% / 23.6% / 24.8% |
| 02:30 | Los Angeles FC vs Austin FC | 1.38 | 4.39 | 5.95 | 64.6% / 20.4% / 15.0% |
| 02:30 | San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo | 1.86 | 3.50 | 3.22 | 47.4% / 25.2% / 27.4% |
| 02:30 | LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers | 1.80 | 3.72 | 3.25 | 49.1% / 23.7% / 27.1% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 14 books (1xBet, 888sport, Unibet (FR), Winamax (FR), Betclic (FR), William Hill). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
00:30 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 36.9% against 39.1%. Prices come from 14 books, and they differ by 143.6% on the widest side.
FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders FC
00:30 UTC
The market leans FC Dallas at 54.3%. Prices come from 14 books, and they differ by 309.1% on the widest side.
Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City
00:30 UTC
The market leans Nashville SC at 72.7%. Prices come from 14 books, and they differ by 809.1% on the widest side.
St. Louis City SC vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC
00:30 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 33.9% against 40.9%. Prices come from 14 books, and they differ by 161.8% on the widest side.
Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC
01:30 UTC
The market leans Colorado Rapids at 45.4%. Prices come from 14 books, and they differ by 212.7% on the widest side.
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
01:30 UTC
The market leans Real Salt Lake at 51.7%. Prices come from 14 books, and they differ by 279.1% on the widest side.
Los Angeles FC vs Austin FC
02:30 UTC
The market leans Los Angeles FC at 64.6%. Prices come from 14 books, and they differ by 536.4% on the widest side.
San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo
02:30 UTC
The market leans San Diego FC at 47.4%. Prices come from 14 books, and they differ by 233.6% on the widest side.
LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers
02:30 UTC
The market leans LA Galaxy at 49.1%. Prices come from 14 books, and they differ by 242.7% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union: 36.9% vs 39.1%.
- Most one-sided — Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City: the market gives Nashville SC 72.7%.
- Where books disagree most — Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City: 809.1% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 12.9% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The market presents a slate with one clear standout favorite: Nashville SC at home against Sporting Kansas City, priced at nearly 73% implied probability. This is the most lopsided matchup of the night—the only one where a single outcome commands more than two-thirds of the probability mass. Los Angeles FC's home fixture against Austin FC is the second-strongest home lean at 64.6%, creating a notable gap between those two and the rest of the field. The remaining seven matches cluster much more tightly around competitive pricing, with home win probabilities ranging from 33.9% to 54.3%.
Three matches stand out as genuinely close affairs. Chicago Fire versus Philadelphia Union and St. Louis City versus Vancouver Whitecaps are nearly coin-flip scenarios, with away wins priced only slightly higher than home wins—the Union and Whitecaps both carry implied probabilities around 39-41% despite playing on the road. FC Dallas against Seattle is the tightest match among the favorites, with Dallas's 54.3% home probability suggesting bookmakers see marginal advantage rather than strong conviction either way. These closely-priced contests indicate uncertainty in the market's assessment.
The margin consistency across books is stable overall, with overround hovering in the 11–14% range across all but the two most one-sided matchups. Nashville's exceptional pricing (11.1% margin across 14 books, with a 809% spread between shortest and longest odds) reflects high conviction but also exceptional disagreement on exactly how probable the Sporting Kansas City upset is. By contrast, the tightest margin appears at Los Angeles FC (12.0%), suggesting rare consensus among bookmakers on that home advantage despite the high home probability itself.
Prices captured 2026-10-10 00:00 UTC. Odds move.