EPL has 5 matches on Saturday, October 17. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | Everton vs Chelsea | 3.10 | 3.69 | 2.15 | 30.4% / 25.6% / 44.0% |
| 14:00 | Brentford vs Liverpool | 2.44 | 3.66 | 2.66 | 38.7% / 25.8% / 35.5% |
| 14:00 | Fulham vs Hull City | 1.67 | 3.96 | 4.79 | 56.4% / 23.9% / 19.7% |
| 14:00 | Manchester City vs Ipswich Town | 1.23 | 6.60 | 10.58 | 76.7% / 14.3% / 8.9% |
| 16:30 | Newcastle United vs Aston Villa | 2.10 | 3.72 | 3.17 | 45.0% / 25.3% / 29.7% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 24 books (Winamax (FR), Winamax (DE), Marathon Bet, Codere (IT), Unibet (FR), Betclic (FR)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Everton vs Chelsea
11:30 UTC
The market leans Chelsea at 44.0%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 14.0% on the widest side.
Brentford vs Liverpool
14:00 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 38.7% against 35.5%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 16.0% on the widest side.
Fulham vs Hull City
14:00 UTC
The market leans Fulham at 56.4%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 26.8% on the widest side.
Manchester City vs Ipswich Town
14:00 UTC
The market leans Manchester City at 76.7%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 74.2% on the widest side.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
16:30 UTC
The market leans Newcastle United at 45.0%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 17.5% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Brentford vs Liverpool: 38.7% vs 35.5%.
- Most one-sided — Manchester City vs Ipswich Town: the market gives Manchester City 76.7%.
- Where books disagree most — Manchester City vs Ipswich Town: 74.2% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.9% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The Saturday slate features a striking contrast in how the market assesses competitive balance. Manchester City versus Ipswich Town stands out as utterly dominant in one direction: the market prices City to win nearly four times as often as Ipswich, with an implied win probability of 76.7% for the home side. This represents by far the widest book spread on the card at 74.2 percentage points. At the other end, Brentford versus Liverpool emerges as the closest contest, with the home side at 38.7% barely edging out the away side at 35.5%—a margin of just 3.2 points—and a much tighter book spread of 16.0%.
Newcastle against Aston Villa sits comfortably in the middle tier of expected competitiveness, with Newcastle priced at 45% to win and Villa at 29.7%. Everton's meeting with Chelsea is marked as nearly equally uncertain in the market's eyes, though Chelsea hold a clearer advantage at 44% implied probability versus Everton's 30.4%. The Fulham-Hull City fixture shows Fulham as strong favorites at 56.4%, reflecting the usual gap in caliber within the Premier League, though the spread of 26.8 points underlines this is no foregone conclusion by market standards.
All five matches show similar vig profiles, with margins clustering between 5.8% and 6.1%, indicating consistent pricing efficiency across the slate. Brentford-Liverpool and Newcastle-Villa both generated interest from 23–24 books, suggesting these contests attracted sufficient wagering interest to support deeper competition among sportsbooks.
Prices captured 2026-10-12 00:00 UTC. Odds move.