MLS has 7 matches on Saturday, October 17. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:30 | Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC | 1.54 | 4.17 | 4.41 | 58.2% / 21.5% / 20.3% |
| 20:30 | Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City SC | 2.23 | 3.53 | 2.57 | 40.1% / 25.3% / 34.7% |
| 23:30 | Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF | 3.47 | 3.98 | 1.71 | 25.6% / 22.3% / 52.1% |
| 23:30 | New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire | 2.23 | 3.61 | 2.52 | 40.0% / 24.7% / 35.3% |
| 23:30 | Orlando City SC vs D.C. United | 1.66 | 3.91 | 3.86 | 54.0% / 22.9% / 23.2% |
| 23:30 | New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC | 2.57 | 3.33 | 2.26 | 34.3% / 26.6% / 39.1% |
| 23:30 | New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC | 2.00 | 3.66 | 2.79 | 44.1% / 24.2% / 31.7% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 18 books (LeoVegas (SE), Unibet (SE), Unibet (NL), PMU (FR), Unibet (FR), Betclic (FR)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC
18:30 UTC
The market leans Philadelphia Union at 58.2%. Prices come from 18 books, and they differ by 356.4% on the widest side.
Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City SC
20:30 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 40.1% against 34.7%. Prices come from 18 books, and they differ by 172.7% on the widest side.
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami CF
23:30 UTC
The market leans Inter Miami CF at 52.1%. Prices come from 16 books, and they differ by 259.1% on the widest side.
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
23:30 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 40.0% against 35.3%. Prices come from 18 books, and they differ by 163.6% on the widest side.
Orlando City SC vs D.C. United
23:30 UTC
The market leans Orlando City SC at 54.0%. Prices come from 18 books, and they differ by 298.2% on the widest side.
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
23:30 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 34.3% against 39.1%. Prices come from 16 books, and they differ by 157.3% on the widest side.
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
23:30 UTC
The market leans New York Red Bulls at 44.1%. Prices come from 16 books, and they differ by 180.0% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire: 40.0% vs 35.3%.
- Most one-sided — Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC: the market gives Philadelphia Union 58.2%.
- Where books disagree most — Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte FC: 356.4% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 12.3% across the slate.
Reading the slate
Philadelphia Union presents the most decisive matchup on the slate, with the market crediting them a 58.2% win probability against Charlotte FC—nearly a 38-point edge. This is the closest the market comes to a consensus across the fixture list, reflected in the smallest margin at 11.6%. The draw, at 21.5%, sits higher than in several other matches, suggesting that while a Union victory is strongly favored, there remains meaningful uncertainty about the exact outcome.
Inter Miami's visit to Atlanta represents the opposite scenario. The away side commands 52.1% implied probability, making this the clearest road favorite on the card. This seven-point advantage over a home team is unusual and signals a stark confidence gap in the market's assessment of these two sides. The draw probability of 22.3% is compressed relative to some other matchups, reinforcing how the market has tilted decisively toward one outcome.
The late-night trio of Minnesota versus St. Louis, New England against Chicago, and New York City hosting Los Angeles all cluster in the competitive range, with home-side probabilities between 34–40%. These matches show the tightest book spreads (172.7%, 163.6%, and 157.3% respectively), indicating strong consensus among bookmakers despite the tight odds. Orlando City against D.C. United splits the difference, offering home odds of 54.0%—comfortably favored but without the dominance seen in Philadelphia's odds. The New York Red Bulls against Toronto rounds out the slate at 44.1% home, with the second-widest book spread at 180.0%, hinting at greater disagreement among the 16 books pricing this fixture.
Prices captured 2026-10-12 00:01 UTC. Odds move.