Serie A has 3 matches on Saturday, October 17. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Venezia vs Napoli | 4.54 | 3.94 | 1.70 | 20.7% / 23.9% / 55.4% |
| 16:00 | Bologna vs Inter Milan | 5.28 | 4.02 | 1.60 | 17.8% / 23.4% / 58.8% |
| 18:45 | AS Roma vs Genoa | 1.35 | 4.99 | 8.34 | 69.8% / 18.9% / 11.3% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 22 books (Pinnacle, Codere (IT), Nordic Bet, Unibet (FR), Winamax (FR), Betsson). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Venezia vs Napoli
13:00 UTC
The market leans Napoli at 55.4%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 22.5% on the widest side.
Bologna vs Inter Milan
16:00 UTC
The market leans Inter Milan at 58.8%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 32.7% on the widest side.
AS Roma vs Genoa
18:45 UTC
The market leans AS Roma at 69.8%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 60.0% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Venezia vs Napoli: 20.7% vs 55.4%.
- Most one-sided — AS Roma vs Genoa: the market gives AS Roma 69.8%.
- Where books disagree most — AS Roma vs Genoa: 60.0% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 6.3% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The day's early fixture sees Venezia hosting Napoli with the away side heavily favored at 55.4% implied probability, though the market still assigns the hosts better than one-in-five chances at 20.7%. The draw sits at nearly a quarter, suggesting bookmakers see this as more competitive than the home-win odds might initially indicate. The margin of 6.3% is consistent across the slate, signaling tight agreement among the 22 books tracked.
Bologna versus Inter Milan presents a sharper split between the sides, with Inter priced at 58.8% to Bologna's 17.8%. This is the widest divergence on the day—the book spread of 32.7% indicates meaningful disagreement among bookmakers about Inter's true chances, the largest discrepancy across all three matches. The draw probability of 23.4% sits in line with the other fixtures, suggesting the variance is concentrated on how the books divide the likelihood of each team winning outright.
Roma's home match against Genoa is the day's most one-sided contest. The hosts command 69.8% implied probability—the highest single outcome on the slate—while Genoa's 11.3% puts this as the clearest favorite scenario available. Roma's draw probability falls to 18.9%, the lowest across all matches, indicating the market expects a decisive outcome. With a 6.1% margin, bookmakers show near-identical confidence in this assessment compared to the earlier kicks.
Prices captured 2026-10-12 00:01 UTC. Odds move.