NFL has 11 matches on Sunday, October 18. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans | 1.67 | 2.22 | 57.1% / 42.9% |
| 17:00 | Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears | 2.49 | 1.54 | 38.2% / 61.8% |
| 17:00 | Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens | 2.83 | 1.42 | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| 17:00 | Philadelphia Eagles vs Carolina Panthers | 1.84 | 1.96 | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| 17:00 | Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans | 1.30 | 3.52 | 73.0% / 27.0% |
| 17:00 | New England Patriots vs New York Jets | 1.28 | 3.69 | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| 17:00 | New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints | 1.91 | 1.88 | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| 17:00 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.22 | 1.67 | 42.9% / 57.1% |
| 20:05 | Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals | 1.12 | 6.34 | 85.0% / 15.0% |
| 20:25 | Las Vegas Raiders vs Buffalo Bills | 2.97 | 1.33 | 30.9% / 69.1% |
| 20:25 | Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers | 1.22 | 4.27 | 77.7% / 22.3% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 21 books (Betclic (FR), MyBookie.ag, Nordic Bet, Betsson, BetOnline.ag, GTbets). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans
13:30 UTC
The market leans Jacksonville Jaguars at 57.1%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 15.8% on the widest side.
Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears
17:00 UTC
The market leans Chicago Bears at 61.8%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 21.5% on the widest side.
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
17:00 UTC
The market leans Baltimore Ravens at 66.6%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 13.7% on the widest side.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Carolina Panthers
17:00 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 51.7% against 48.3%. Prices come from 21 books, and they differ by 15.1% on the widest side.
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
17:00 UTC
The market leans Indianapolis Colts at 73.0%. Prices come from 21 books, and they differ by 20.6% on the widest side.
New England Patriots vs New York Jets
17:00 UTC
The market leans New England Patriots at 74.2%. Prices come from 21 books, and they differ by 25.0% on the widest side.
New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints
17:00 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 49.5% against 50.5%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 16.5% on the widest side.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers
17:00 UTC
The market leans Pittsburgh Steelers at 57.1%. Prices come from 21 books, and they differ by 21.1% on the widest side.
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
20:05 UTC
The market leans Los Angeles Rams at 85.0%. Prices come from 16 books, and they differ by 40.0% on the widest side.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Buffalo Bills
20:25 UTC
The market leans Buffalo Bills at 69.1%. Prices come from 15 books, and they differ by 226.7% on the widest side.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers
20:25 UTC
The market leans Kansas City Chiefs at 77.7%. Prices come from 21 books, and they differ by 27.0% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints: 49.5% vs 50.5%.
- Most one-sided — Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals: the market gives Los Angeles Rams 85.0%.
- Where books disagree most — Las Vegas Raiders vs Buffalo Bills: 226.7% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.6% across the slate.
Reading the slate
This Sunday's slate features three matches where the market has crystallized strong home-team consensus. The Rams are priced at 85% to beat Arizona, the Patriots at 74.2% over New York, and the Colts at 73% over Tennessee. These represent the three most lopsided contests, with the Rams-Cardinals pairing showing a 40-point book spread despite only 16 available bookmakers—a notable concentration of conviction around Los Angeles's superiority. The Chiefs at 77.7% home chalk also falls into this tier of heavy favorites, though their 27-point spread across 21 books shows more dispersed pricing than the Rams.
The tightest matchups occupy the middle of the slate, where Eagles-Panthers, Giants-Saints, and Jaguars-Texans all sit within five percentage points implied probability. Eagles-Panthers shows nearly perfect split odds at 51.7-48.3, while the Giants-Saints pairing mirrors this near-dead heat at 49.5-50.5. The Jaguars edge the Texans by 4.8%, giving Jacksonville the slimmest home advantage on the card. These three games represent genuine uncertainty in how bookmakers across the market are pricing competitive matchups.
One data point stands out: Las Vegas and Buffalo show an unusually wide 8.9% gap between implied probability (Buffalo 69.1%) and the book spread (226.7%), the largest such divergence on the slate. This suggests either significant disagreement among the 15 available sportsbooks or sparse coverage creating outsized moves on available quotes. By contrast, most other matches show consistent gaps between 5-5.7%, indicating tighter alignment among the 19-21 books typically offering lines.
Prices captured 2026-10-13 00:00 UTC. Odds move.