Bundesliga has 2 matches on Sunday, October 18. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.29 | 55.5% / 22.5% / 22.0% |
| 15:30 | Borussia Monchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim | 3.18 | 4.02 | 2.01 | 29.6% / 23.5% / 47.0% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 23 books (Pinnacle, Winamax (DE), Unibet (FR), Tipico, 1xBet, 888sport). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
13:30 UTC
The market leans Bayer Leverkusen at 55.5%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 15.5% on the widest side.
Borussia Monchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim
15:30 UTC
The market leans TSG Hoffenheim at 47.0%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 16.9% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Borussia Monchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim: 29.6% vs 47.0%.
- Most one-sided — Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: the market gives Bayer Leverkusen 55.5%.
- Where books disagree most — Borussia Monchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim: 16.9% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 6.0% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The early kick-off sees Bayer Leverkusen heavily favored at home, with the market pricing them to win just over half the time. Freiburg are given roughly a one-in-five chance, matching the draw probability almost exactly. The bookmakers show the tightest spread across this pair—just 15.5 percentage points separating the most bullish and most bearish prices on the home win—suggesting genuine consensus that Leverkusen are the clear favorites, though hardly a certainty.
The afternoon match presents a starkly different profile. Hoffenheim are priced as slight favorites despite playing away, handed a 47 percent win probability compared to just under 30 percent for Borussia Mönchengladbach at home. The draw sits in the middle at just under a quarter. This fixture shows the widest disagreement among bookmakers of the day: a 16.9 percentage point spread on the home win implies real uncertainty about how to value Mönchengladbach's chances on their own ground. That tension—home-field advantage versus an away team marked as stronger—is where the market is most divided.
The margins are nearly identical across both matches, hovering around 6 percent, indicating bookmakers have priced these fixtures with similar precision. Sunday's slate splits cleanly into a home-favored affair and a road-favored one, with the latter drawing considerably more scatter among the book.
Prices captured 2026-10-13 00:00 UTC. Odds move.