EPL has 4 matches on Sunday, October 18. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Bournemouth vs Sunderland | 2.02 | 3.57 | 3.57 | 47.0% / 26.5% / 26.5% |
| 13:00 | Brighton and Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace | 1.56 | 4.40 | 5.33 | 60.7% / 21.5% / 17.8% |
| 13:00 | Leeds United vs Manchester United | 2.46 | 3.60 | 2.70 | 38.5% / 26.3% / 35.1% |
| 15:30 | Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal | 6.05 | 3.97 | 1.57 | 15.7% / 23.9% / 60.4% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 24 books (888sport, Winamax (FR), Winamax (DE), Betclic (FR), Codere (IT), Unibet (FR)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Bournemouth vs Sunderland
13:00 UTC
The market leans Bournemouth at 47.0%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 16.7% on the widest side.
Brighton and Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace
13:00 UTC
The market leans Brighton and Hove Albion at 60.7%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 18.0% on the widest side.
Leeds United vs Manchester United
13:00 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 38.5% against 35.1%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 12.2% on the widest side.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
15:30 UTC
The market leans Arsenal at 60.4%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 25.9% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Leeds United vs Manchester United: 38.5% vs 35.1%.
- Most one-sided — Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: the market gives Arsenal 60.4%.
- Where books disagree most — Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: 25.9% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.5% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The Sunday slate features a significant disparity in how the market views each matchup's competitive balance. Arsenal away at Nottingham Forest is by far the most one-sided proposition, with bookmakers pricing the visitors at a 60.4% win probability—nearly four times the home side's 15.7% chance. This creates the largest book spread on the day at 25.9 percentage points. By contrast, Bournemouth versus Sunderland is nearly even, with the home team favored only marginally at 47.0%, and the draw and away win nearly equalized at 26.5% each. Brighton's home fixture against Crystal Palace sits in the middle ground, offering the highest home win probability among all matches at 60.7%, though still well short of Arsenal's dominance as the away team.
Leeds United's hosting of Manchester United presents the closest three-way split in outcome probabilities, with only a 4.4-point gap between the 38.5% home win and 35.1% away win. This relatively tight contest translates to the smallest book spread at 12.2 points, suggesting the tightest consensus among the 24 bookmakers tracked. The Bournemouth-Sunderland and Brighton-Palace matches show much larger spreads—16.7 and 18.0 points respectively—indicating greater disagreement among operators about how to price the favorite's advantage.
All four matches carry similar overround margins between 5.4% and 5.6%, showing consistent bookmaker handling across a diverse set of implied probabilities. The contrasting market certainties—from Arsenal's heavy away favoritism to the competitive three-way probability split at Leeds—suggest very different narratives about these four fixtures from a pricing perspective.
Prices captured 2026-10-13 00:00 UTC. Odds move.