La Liga has 4 matches on Sunday, October 18. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | CA Osasuna vs Real Racing Club de Santander | 1.96 | 3.60 | 3.72 | 48.2% / 26.3% / 25.5% |
| 14:15 | Celta Vigo vs Alavés | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 47.2% / 27.9% / 24.9% |
| 16:30 | Málaga vs Real Sociedad | 3.20 | 3.49 | 2.18 | 29.6% / 27.1% / 43.4% |
| 19:00 | Real Madrid vs Sevilla | 1.24 | 6.49 | 10.56 | 76.4% / 14.6% / 9.0% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 21 books (Pinnacle, Nordic Bet, Coolbet, William Hill, Tipico, Betclic (FR)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
CA Osasuna vs Real Racing Club de Santander
12:00 UTC
The market leans CA Osasuna at 48.2%. Prices come from 21 books, and they differ by 21.8% on the widest side.
Celta Vigo vs Alavés
14:15 UTC
The market leans Celta Vigo at 47.2%. Prices come from 21 books, and they differ by 14.3% on the widest side.
Málaga vs Real Sociedad
16:30 UTC
The market leans Real Sociedad at 43.4%. Prices come from 21 books, and they differ by 11.7% on the widest side.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla
19:00 UTC
The market leans Real Madrid at 76.4%. Prices come from 21 books, and they differ by 42.0% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Málaga vs Real Sociedad: 29.6% vs 43.4%.
- Most one-sided — Real Madrid vs Sevilla: the market gives Real Madrid 76.4%.
- Where books disagree most — Real Madrid vs Sevilla: 42.0% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.6% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The Sunday slate presents a sharp divide between mismatches and genuinely competitive encounters. Real Madrid versus Sevilla stands out as the most lopsided affair, with bookmakers pricing the home side at 76.4% to win—a probability that reflects a market expecting dominance rather than a close contest. The 42-point spread between highest and lowest implied probability at that fixture is by far the largest on the card, suggesting bookmakers see little uncertainty in the outcome. In contrast, the three earlier matches cluster around similar probability distributions, each with one team favored but none treated as a clear favorite across all three outcomes.
Osasuna against Racing and Celta against Alavés both present near-identical market structures, with home teams priced around 47-48% and draws hovering near 27%. The away sides in both matches sit in the 25-26% range, creating balanced matchups where no single outcome dominates. These two fixtures show the smallest book spread differentials on the card at 14.3% and 21.8% respectively, indicating tighter agreement among bookmakers about the likely distribution of outcomes.
The Málaga versus Real Sociedad fixture forms an interesting middle ground. While Sociedad arrives as the clear away favorite at 43.4%, Málaga's home advantage keeps them competitive at 29.6%, with a substantial 27.1% draw probability—the highest on the slate. The 11.7-point spread here is the tightest among all matches, suggesting bookmakers are most aligned on this particular matchup's structure.
Prices captured 2026-10-13 00:01 UTC. Odds move.