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EPL Monday, October 19: 1 match, odds and implied probabilities

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EPL has 1 match on Monday, October 19. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeDrawAwayImplied
19:00Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City1.484.596.1764.0% / 20.6% / 15.3%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 23 books (Marathon Bet, Winamax (FR), Winamax (DE), Betclic (FR), 1xBet, Codere (IT)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City

19:00 UTC

The market leans Tottenham Hotspur at 64.0%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 22.7% on the widest side.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City: 64.0% vs 15.3%.
  • Most one-sided — Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City: the market gives Tottenham Hotspur 64.0%.
  • Where books disagree most — Tottenham Hotspur vs Coventry City: 22.7% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 5.6% across the slate.

Reading the slate

Tottenham are priced as comfortable favorites in this Monday evening fixture, with the market assigning them a 64.0% implied probability of victory. This represents a decisive but not overwhelming advantage—roughly a 4-to-1 shot at home compared to Coventry's chances. The 20.6% draw probability suggests bookmakers see meaningful scope for a stalemate, which sits in the moderate range for Premier League matches.

The 23 books tracked on this matchup show a 22.7 percentage-point spread between the highest and lowest home-win odds, indicating notable disagreement among operators on where exactly Tottenham's true win probability lies. That's a substantial variance for a single fixture. The 5.6% overround margin is relatively tight, suggesting the books are competing efficiently on this prominent Monday slot rather than building in heavy juice.

The structure here reflects a home team expected to dominate possession and chances, but not one the market treats as inevitable. Coventry's combined 36% probability (draw plus away win) indicates the visiting side retains genuine prospects, whether through a defensive performance or set-play opportunities. The fairly wide consensus spread hints that reasonable bookmakers genuinely disagree on the balance between these two scenarios.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-10-14 00:00 UTC. Odds move.

EPL Monday, October 19: 1 match, odds and implied probabilities

Comments (3)

  • lark100

    64% for Spurs at home seems fair given how much better they are, but that 22.7% spread between books is pretty wild for one match.

  • patientmantle

    Yeah that spread is crazy, nearly a quarter point difference on the same game. Makes you wonder which books are undervaluing Coventry there.

  • hazelmarten

    That 20.6% draw probability seems high for a home match, Spurs usually don't sit back that much.