Friday! The weekend has finally arrived. While some will be gearing up for Week 1 of college football, some of us will still be sweating out longballs.
Without further ado, here are my favorite home run props and predictions for tonight’s MLB slate, highlighted by Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 4.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
| Carter Jensen | 18% |
| Jac Caglianone | 19% |
Home run prediction: Carter Jensen (20%)
The Kansas City Royals find themselves in a mouthwatering spot against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Jameson Taillon, who is the worst-rated pitcher in Batters-Box’s current-season dataset this evening. In that same dataset, Carter Jensen owns the third-highest matchup rating, behind only Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez and teammate Jac Caglianone.
Jensen has been tearing the cover off the baseball over his last 10 games, sporting a .914 SLG and .543 ISO while posting a 63% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate.
Over his last 60 left-handed hitters, Taillon has allowed a 14.3% barrel rate and 71.4% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .360 xBA, .597 xSLG and .388 xwOBA.
With the entire Royals lineup likely humming around Jensen, the home run upside is even more amplified.
Take this down to 25%.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, Sportsnet
Home run prediction: Jac Caglianone (23%)
It was nearly impossible for me to pinpoint which Royal was in a better spot, so I took both Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone.
The Royals’ young power hitters find themselves with one of the highest matchup ratings on the day, while covering nearly 100% of Taillon’s entire pitch mix. Through 30 elite ratings this season on Batters-Box, Caglianone has left the yard 22% of the time.
Across the big fella’s last 10 games, he sports a .512 SLG and .186 ISO, while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate.
The entire Kansas City Royals lineup in a great spot, Jensen and Caglianone are the two that stood out the most.
Take this down to 25%.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, Sportsnet
- HR picks: 120-407, +26.6 units