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Bundesliga Sunday, October 25: 2 matches, odds and implied probabilities

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Bundesliga has 2 matches on Sunday, October 25. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeDrawAwayImplied
14:30TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen2.673.992.3235.5% / 23.7% / 40.8%
16:30SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich6.465.701.3714.6% / 16.6% / 68.8%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 22 books (Pinnacle, Winamax (FR), 888sport, Tipico, Unibet (FR), Marathon Bet). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen

14:30 UTC

The market can barely separate them — 35.5% against 40.8%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 14.3% on the widest side.

SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich

16:30 UTC

The market leans Bayern Munich at 68.8%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 29.5% on the widest side.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen: 35.5% vs 40.8%.
  • Most one-sided — SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: the market gives Bayern Munich 68.8%.
  • Where books disagree most — SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: 29.5% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 5.8% across the slate.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-10-20 00:00 UTC. Odds move.

Bundesliga Sunday, October 25: 2 matches, odds and implied probabilities

Comments (1)

  • olive_harbor

    Bayern at 68.8% seems too low given how dominant they've been, but I guess Freiburg always plays them tough at home.