Serie A has 5 matches on Wednesday, October 28. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:30 | AC Milan vs Bologna | 1.57 | 3.83 | 5.01 | 58.1% / 23.8% / 18.2% |
| 17:30 | Venezia vs Inter Milan | 7.90 | 5.76 | 1.30 | 11.8% / 16.2% / 71.9% |
| 17:30 | Parma vs Udinese | 2.83 | 3.06 | 2.34 | 31.9% / 29.5% / 38.5% |
| 19:45 | Genoa vs Juventus | 5.31 | 3.72 | 1.63 | 17.6% / 25.1% / 57.3% |
| 19:45 | Monza vs Napoli | 3.78 | 3.69 | 1.87 | 24.8% / 25.3% / 49.9% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 20 books (Pinnacle, Betclic (FR), Unibet (FR), Winamax (FR), Winamax (DE), 1xBet). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
AC Milan vs Bologna
17:30 UTC
The market leans AC Milan at 58.1%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 419.1% on the widest side.
Venezia vs Inter Milan
17:30 UTC
The market leans Inter Milan at 71.9%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 46.2% on the widest side.
Parma vs Udinese
17:30 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 31.9% against 38.5%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 182.0% on the widest side.
Genoa vs Juventus
19:45 UTC
The market leans Juventus at 57.3%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 28.9% on the widest side.
Monza vs Napoli
19:45 UTC
The market leans Napoli at 49.9%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 19.7% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Parma vs Udinese: 31.9% vs 38.5%.
- Most one-sided — Venezia vs Inter Milan: the market gives Inter Milan 71.9%.
- Where books disagree most — AC Milan vs Bologna: 419.1% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 8.3% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The midweek Serie A slate features a stark division between heavily favoured away sides and more competitive home matchups. Inter Milan's visit to Venezia and Juventus's trip to Genoa are priced as decisive away victories, with the market assigning the visitors 71.9% and 57.3% win probability respectively. These two matches show the tightest consensus among bookmakers, with book spreads below 50 points, suggesting the market has settled on clear readings. By contrast, the Parma versus Udinese encounter stands as the most uncertain fixture on the card—a genuine three-way contest where no outcome commands more than 38.5% implied probability, making it the only match where an away win edges ahead of the alternatives.
AC Milan versus Bologna presents the most conflicted market, with a book spread of 419.1 points indicating substantial disagreement across the 19 tracked bookmakers. While the home side is favoured at 58.1%, this range of opinion is nearly an order of magnitude wider than any other fixture. Monza's hosting of Napoli occupies middle ground: the away side is favoured with just under 50% probability, but the 25-point margins for both home and draw outcomes leave genuine scope for an upset or stalemate.
Margins across the slate cluster tightly between 6.9% and 10.7%, indicating that bookmakers are protecting themselves uniformly. The Inter and Juventus away matches, despite their lopsided probability distributions, carry among the tightest margins—the market is confident but charging appropriately for it. Conversely, the closer matches like Parma–Udinese and Monza–Napoli carry the steepest margins, reflecting the genuine uncertainty built into those prices.
Prices captured 2026-10-23 00:00 UTC. Odds move.