Bundesliga has 1 match on Friday, October 30. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:30 | Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 | 3.15 | 3.74 | 2.05 | 29.6% / 24.9% / 45.5% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 17 books (Pinnacle, Unibet (FR), Winamax (DE), Winamax (FR), Betclic (FR), Codere (IT)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05
19:30 UTC
The market leans FSV Mainz 05 at 45.5%. Prices come from 17 books, and they differ by 19.3% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: 29.6% vs 45.5%.
- Most one-sided — Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: the market gives FSV Mainz 05 45.5%.
- Where books disagree most — Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: 19.3% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 7.4% across the slate.
Reading the slate
Elversberg hosting Mainz on Friday sees the visitors as clear favorites despite playing away, with the market pricing a 45.5% win probability for FSV compared to just 29.6% for the home side. The draw sits at 24.9%, making this a moderately split contest where no single outcome dominates. The 7.4% overround suggests bookmakers extracted a modest edge, fairly typical for Bundesliga fixtures.
The spread of 19.3% between the highest and lowest odds across 17 books indicates some meaningful disagreement on how to price this match, particularly likely around where exactly the away advantage translates to probability. This kind of variance deserves attention—it reflects genuine uncertainty in the market rather than consensus pricing. The outcome space is distributed enough that a draw or home upset both represent plausible scenarios, even if the market leans toward an away Mainz result.
Prices captured 2026-10-25 00:00 UTC. Odds move.