La Liga has 4 matches on Saturday, October 31. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Levante vs Atlético Madrid | 4.76 | 4.34 | 1.60 | 19.7% / 21.6% / 58.6% |
| 15:15 | Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo | 2.28 | 3.33 | 3.06 | 41.2% / 28.2% / 30.6% |
| 17:30 | Real Betis vs Málaga | 1.38 | 5.08 | 6.97 | 68.0% / 18.5% / 13.5% |
| 20:00 | Barcelona vs Alavés | 1.12 | 8.22 | 20.31 | 83.9% / 11.5% / 4.6% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 18 books (Pinnacle, Betclic (FR), Winamax (DE), Winamax (FR), Codere (IT), 1xBet). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Levante vs Atlético Madrid
13:00 UTC
The market leans Atlético Madrid at 58.6%. Prices come from 16 books, and they differ by 24.8% on the widest side.
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo
15:15 UTC
The market leans Rayo Vallecano at 41.2%. Prices come from 17 books, and they differ by 18.9% on the widest side.
Real Betis vs Málaga
17:30 UTC
The market leans Real Betis at 68.0%. Prices come from 18 books, and they differ by 34.5% on the widest side.
Barcelona vs Alavés
20:00 UTC
The market leans Barcelona at 83.9%. Prices come from 18 books, and they differ by 98.6% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo: 41.2% vs 30.6%.
- Most one-sided — Barcelona vs Alavés: the market gives Barcelona 83.9%.
- Where books disagree most — Barcelona vs Alavés: 98.6% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 6.4% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The morning fixture sees Atlético Madrid heavily favored at nearly 59 percent implied probability, but Levante's 19.7 percent home chance and the draw at 21.6 percent suggest the market is pricing meaningful uncertainty. With a book spread of 24.8 percent across 16 bookmakers, there's noticeable disagreement on the exact odds, though the direction is clear. The 6.5 percent margin indicates a moderately efficient market despite the variance between shops.
Rayo Vallecano versus Celta Vigo is the closest contest on the slate, with no side commanding more than 41 percent. The home team sits just ahead at 41.2 percent, while the away side checks in at 30.6 percent and the draw at 28.2 percent. Seventeen bookmakers show an 18.9 percent spread, which is the second-widest disagreement of the day, suggesting real uncertainty about how to price this one. The 6.7 percent margin is typical for the card.
Real Betis against Málaga tilts decisively toward the home side at 68 percent, making it the second-most lopsided result the market expects. The 34.5 percent spread between bookmakers is the day's largest by far, indicating material disagreement on Betis's true win probability despite unanimous direction. Barcelona's evening clash with Alavés is far more extreme: the 83.9 percent home probability and 98.6 percent book spread underscore that while the market sees a clear favorite, there is surprisingly wide variance in how aggressively different books price the gap. The away side sits at just 4.6 percent, the lowest probability on the fixture list.
Prices captured 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC. Odds move.