Bundesliga has 6 matches on Saturday, October 31. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | Augsburg vs SC Freiburg | 2.95 | 3.79 | 2.15 | 31.7% / 24.7% / 43.6% |
| 14:30 | Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart | 1.75 | 4.27 | 3.81 | 53.5% / 21.9% / 24.6% |
| 14:30 | Borussia Monchengladbach vs SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.01 | 3.57 | 50.5% / 23.3% / 26.2% |
| 14:30 | FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig | 3.78 | 3.90 | 1.83 | 24.8% / 24.0% / 51.1% |
| 14:30 | Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim | 2.91 | 3.92 | 2.13 | 32.2% / 23.9% / 43.9% |
| 17:30 | Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund | 1.33 | 5.79 | 6.90 | 70.2% / 16.2% / 13.6% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 19 books (Pinnacle, Unibet (FR), Winamax (DE), Codere (IT), Winamax (FR), Betclic (FR)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Augsburg vs SC Freiburg
14:30 UTC
The market leans SC Freiburg at 43.6%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 17.7% on the widest side.
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart
14:30 UTC
The market leans Bayer Leverkusen at 53.5%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 30.3% on the widest side.
Borussia Monchengladbach vs SC Paderborn
14:30 UTC
The market leans Borussia Monchengladbach at 50.5%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 25.0% on the widest side.
FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
14:30 UTC
The market leans RB Leipzig at 51.1%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 20.9% on the widest side.
Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim
14:30 UTC
The market leans TSG Hoffenheim at 43.9%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 20.8% on the widest side.
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
17:30 UTC
The market leans Bayern Munich at 70.2%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 35.7% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim: 32.2% vs 43.9%.
- Most one-sided — Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: the market gives Bayern Munich 70.2%.
- Where books disagree most — Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: 35.7% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 6.8% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The Saturday slate shows a market consensus that Bayern Munich are heavy favourites in the evening fixture, priced with a 70.2% implied win probability—by far the most lopsided matchup on the card. That 35.7 percentage point spread between Bayern's home probability and Borussia Dortmund's away probability dwarfs every other contest. The next clearest hierarchy sits between Bayer Leverkusen and Stuttgart, where the home side is given a 53.5% chance compared to the visitor's 24.6%, though the gap is notably tighter.
The remaining four early kickoffs paint a picture of genuine balance or modest home advantage. Augsburg versus Freiburg is the closest contest by the market's lights, with just a 17.7 point gap between the highest and lowest outcome probabilities, suggesting the bookmakers see very little to separate them. Schalke against Leipzig inverts the typical favouritism, with the away side priced at 51.1% to the hosts' 24.8%, making it the only fixture where a visiting team is marked as clear favourites. Bremen-Hoffenheim and Monchengladbach-Paderborn fall in between, both displaying moderate spreads around 20-25 points and suggesting the home teams hold a modest edge without dominance.
All 19 books assessed carry remarkably consistent margins between 6.7% and 6.9%, indicating tight agreement on the overround. The variance between operators lies not in how much they're taking, but in how they weight the three outcomes. This uniformity suggests the market has priced these matches efficiently against available information.
Prices captured 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC. Odds move.