Bundesliga has 2 matches on Sunday, November 1. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln | 2.46 | 3.58 | 2.63 | 38.1% / 26.2% / 35.6% |
| 16:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV | 1.64 | 4.37 | 4.46 | 57.3% / 21.6% / 21.1% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 22 books (Pinnacle, Unibet (FR), Winamax (DE), Winamax (FR), Betclic (FR), Marathon Bet). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln
14:30 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 38.1% against 35.6%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 14.7% on the widest side.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV
16:30 UTC
The market leans Eintracht Frankfurt at 57.3%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 22.0% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: 38.1% vs 35.6%.
- Most one-sided — Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV: the market gives Eintracht Frankfurt 57.3%.
- Where books disagree most — Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV: 22.0% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 6.4% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The Union Berlin versus Cologne match presents the day's tightest contest from a market perspective. The implied probabilities sit within just 2.5 percentage points of each other across the three outcomes, with the home side favored at 38.1% and the away team at 35.6%. This near-parity is reflected in the 14.7% spread between the highest and lowest odds across the 22 bookmakers tracked, suggesting genuine uncertainty about which side emerges with three points. The 6.6% overround is modest for a competitive fixture, indicating bookmakers themselves see little edge either way.
Frankfurt's hosting of Hamburg tells a starkly different story. The market prices Frankfurt as heavy favorites at 57.3%, more than twice Hamburg's 21.1% win probability, while draws are expected just over one in five times. The 22% spread across bookmakers on this match is notably wider than the Berlin-Cologne pairing, the largest disagreement on the day's slate. This suggests bookmakers hold more divergent views on Frankfurt's true edge, despite the consensus lean toward a home victory. The 6.3% overround is similarly lean as the earlier match, so disagreement here reflects genuine analytical variance rather than different margin structures.
Across the two fixtures, Sunday's Bundesliga card is framed as one competitive matchup and one where the market sees a clear favorite. The home sides in both matches carry advantage—Union at a modest 38% and Frankfurt substantially higher—but the distribution of risk differs considerably. Combined, these fixtures span a wide range of perceived outcome certainty.
Prices captured 2026-10-27 00:00 UTC. Odds move.