EPL has 7 matches on Saturday, September 12. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest | 2.06 | 3.50 | 3.49 | 45.8% / 27.1% / 27.1% |
| 14:00 | Bournemouth vs Brentford | 2.49 | 3.53 | 2.67 | 37.9% / 26.7% / 35.4% |
| 14:00 | Chelsea vs Hull City | 1.23 | 6.21 | 12.01 | 76.9% / 15.3% / 7.9% |
| 14:00 | Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town | 1.87 | 3.66 | 3.98 | 50.4% / 25.8% / 23.7% |
| 14:00 | Liverpool vs Fulham | 1.44 | 4.95 | 6.22 | 65.7% / 19.1% / 15.2% |
| 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton | 2.00 | 3.52 | 3.64 | 47.2% / 26.9% / 25.9% |
| 19:00 | Sunderland vs Arsenal | 6.81 | 4.14 | 1.50 | 13.9% / 22.9% / 63.3% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 24 books (Tipico, Winamax (FR), MyBookie.ag, Codere (IT), Unibet (FR), Winamax (DE)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
14:00 UTC · Villa Park, Birmingham · Season record: Aston Villa 0-1-2 / Nottingham Forest 0-2-1
The market leans Aston Villa at 45.8%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 12.7% on the widest side.
Bournemouth vs Brentford
14:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth · Season record: Bournemouth 0-2-1 / Brentford 1-2-0
The market can barely separate them — 37.9% against 35.4%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 19.2% on the widest side.
Chelsea vs Hull City
14:00 UTC · Stamford Bridge, London · Season record: Chelsea 2-0-1 / Hull City 2-1-0
The market leans Chelsea at 76.9%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 52.6% on the widest side.
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town
14:00 UTC · Selhurst Park, London · Season record: Crystal Palace 1-0-2 / Ipswich Town 1-0-2
The market leans Crystal Palace at 50.4%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 13.5% on the widest side.
Liverpool vs Fulham
14:00 UTC · Anfield, Liverpool · Season record: Liverpool 1-2-0 / Fulham 0-0-3
The market leans Liverpool at 65.7%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 29.6% on the widest side.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton
16:30 UTC · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London · Season record: Tottenham Hotspur 0-1-2 / Everton 1-2-0
The market leans Tottenham Hotspur at 47.2%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 13.5% on the widest side.
Sunderland vs Arsenal
19:00 UTC · Stadium of Light, Sunderland · Season record: Sunderland 1-1-1 / Arsenal 3-0-0
The market leans Arsenal at 63.3%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 33.3% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Bournemouth vs Brentford: 37.9% vs 35.4%.
- Most one-sided — Chelsea vs Hull City: the market gives Chelsea 76.9%.
- Where books disagree most — Chelsea vs Hull City: 52.6% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.7% across the slate.
Reading the slate
Chelsea's dominance at home against Hull City stands out sharply across this slate. The market prices a Chelsea win at 76.9%, nearly 30 percentage points clear of any other favourite on the day. This isn't just a comfortable home advantage—it reflects an unusually asymmetric matchup. The book spread of 52.6% is the widest on the card, meaning bookmakers disagree most substantially on this fixture, yet they all converge on an overwhelming Chelsea lean. Every other match clusters between 13.5% and 19.2% spread, making Chelsea-Hull an outlier both in certainty and in disagreement about its exact odds.
At the other end, Sunderland versus Arsenal presents the sharpest away win on the slate at 63.3%, with a book spread of 33.3% showing considerable variance in how firms price Arsenal's advantage. Liverpool-Fulham sits between these poles at 65.7% for the home side but with notably less disagreement among bookmakers (29.6% spread). The tightest contests by the market's measure are Aston Villa-Nottingham Forest and Tottenham-Everton, both essentially coin-flips for the favourite with around 47–50% home win probability and draws priced in the 26–27% range.
Bournemouth-Brentford is the closest to a genuine three-way betting proposition on the day. Home advantage gives Bournemouth only 37.9%, while Brentford's away odds imply a 35.4% chance—just 2.5 percentage points apart. With draws at 26.7%, none of the three outcomes feels remotely locked in, and the 19.2% book spread indicates the widest disagreement on outcome probability after Chelsea-Hull. Across all seven fixtures, margin consistency is tight (5.5–5.9%), suggesting uniform overround applied rather than wildly different hold philosophies.
Prices captured 2026-09-07 02:21 UTC. Odds move.