NPB has 6 matches on Tuesday, September 8. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | Hanshin Tigers vs Hiroshima Toyo Carp | 1.30 | 1.35 | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| 09:00 | Yokohama Dena Baystars vs Tokyo Yakult Swallows | 1.38 | 1.36 | 49.7% / 50.3% |
| 09:00 | Yomiuri Giants vs Chunichi Dragons | 1.31 | 1.34 | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| 09:00 | Chiba Lotte Marines vs Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles | 1.30 | 1.36 | 51.1% / 48.9% |
| 09:00 | Fukuoka Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters | 1.36 | 1.35 | 49.9% / 50.1% |
| 09:00 | Orix Buffaloes vs Saitama Seibu Lions | 1.68 | 1.34 | 44.3% / 55.7% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 3 books (kalshi, polymarket, polymarket.us). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Hanshin Tigers vs Hiroshima Toyo Carp
09:00 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 51.0% against 49.0%. Prices come from 2 books, and they differ by 5.3% on the widest side.
Yokohama Dena Baystars vs Tokyo Yakult Swallows
09:00 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 49.7% against 50.3%. Prices come from 3 books, and they differ by 5.5% on the widest side.
Yomiuri Giants vs Chunichi Dragons
09:00 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 50.7% against 49.3%. Prices come from 2 books, and they differ by 4.1% on the widest side.
Chiba Lotte Marines vs Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles
09:00 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 51.1% against 48.9%. Prices come from 2 books, and they differ by 5.3% on the widest side.
Fukuoka Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters
09:00 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 49.9% against 50.1%. Prices come from 3 books, and they differ by 6.9% on the widest side.
Orix Buffaloes vs Saitama Seibu Lions
09:00 UTC
The market leans Saitama Seibu Lions at 55.7%. Prices come from 3 books, and they differ by 32.0% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Fukuoka Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters: 49.9% vs 50.1%.
- Most one-sided — Orix Buffaloes vs Saitama Seibu Lions: the market gives Saitama Seibu Lions 55.7%.
- Where books disagree most — Orix Buffaloes vs Saitama Seibu Lions: 32.0% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 46.7% across the slate.
Reading the slate
Tuesday's NPB slate presents a largely competitive set of matchups, with five of the six games priced within a 5-point margin between home and away sides. The Hanshin Tigers versus Hiroshima Toyo Carp, Yomiuri Giants against Chunichi Dragons, and Chiba Lotte Marines facing Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles all sit essentially at coin-flip territory, each implying near-50-50 contests. Yokohama Dena Baystars and Tokyo Yakult Swallows is marginally closer still, with the market pricing the visitors at a 50.3 to 49.7 advantage. Meanwhile, Fukuoka Hawks and Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters rounds out the tightly-bunched group, again separated by just 0.2 percentage points in the implied probabilities.
The true standout is Orix Buffaloes against Saitama Seibu Lions, where the market has identified a clear favorite. The Buffaloes are priced at 44.3 per cent to win, implying roughly a 1-in-2.3 chance, while the Lions command 55.7 per cent—a 32-percentage-point spread that dwarfs all other fixtures. This is the only game where bookmakers show substantial agreement on direction, with a 32-point spread across three books compared to single-digit spreads in the other contests. That 34 per cent margin also indicates this is where the market sees the most daylight between the teams.
Bookmaker disagreement is most pronounced in the Hawks-Fighters and Baystars-Swallows matchups, where spreads of 6.9 and 5.5 points respectively suggest less consensus on the exact probability. The Giants-Dragons game shows the tightest bookmaker agreement relative to its competitive nature, with only a 4.1-point spread despite neither side favored. Collectively, the slate's overall margins are lean—most sitting in the 46-51 per cent range—reflecting an evening where few teams are viewed as clear favorites by the market.
Prices captured 2026-09-07 02:57 UTC. Odds move.