Bundesliga has 6 matches on Saturday, September 12. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | 4.19 | 4.20 | 1.71 | 22.5% / 22.4% / 55.1% |
| 13:30 | Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn | 1.24 | 6.56 | 10.29 | 76.4% / 14.4% / 9.2% |
| 13:30 | SC Freiburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach | 1.71 | 4.06 | 4.39 | 55.3% / 23.2% / 21.5% |
| 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.01 | 3.83 | 3.34 | 47.0% / 24.7% / 28.3% |
| 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart | 2.29 | 3.88 | 2.73 | 41.2% / 24.3% / 34.5% |
| 16:30 | 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen | 2.08 | 3.72 | 3.22 | 45.3% / 25.4% / 29.3% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 24 books (Unibet (FR), Tipico, Coolbet, Betclic (FR), Codere (IT), 1xBet). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
13:30 UTC · WWK Arena, Augsburg · Season record: Augsburg 2-0-0 / Bayer Leverkusen 1-0-1
The market leans Bayer Leverkusen at 55.1%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 24.3% on the widest side.
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn
13:30 UTC · Signal Iduna Park, Aue · Season record: Borussia Dortmund 2-0-0 / SC Paderborn 0-1-1
The market leans Borussia Dortmund at 76.4%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 66.7% on the widest side.
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach
13:30 UTC · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau · Season record: SC Freiburg 2-0-0 / Borussia Monchengladbach 0-0-2
The market leans SC Freiburg at 55.3%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 21.0% on the widest side.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
13:30 UTC · MEWA ARENA, Mainz · Season record: FSV Mainz 05 1-1-0 / Eintracht Frankfurt 0-1-1
The market leans FSV Mainz 05 at 47.0%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 25.4% on the widest side.
TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
13:30 UTC · PreZero Arena, Sinsheim · Season record: TSG Hoffenheim 0-0-2 / VfB Stuttgart 1-0-1
The market can barely separate them — 41.2% against 34.5%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 18.4% on the widest side.
1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen
16:30 UTC
The market leans 1. FC Köln at 45.3%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 15.3% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart: 41.2% vs 34.5%.
- Most one-sided — Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn: the market gives Borussia Dortmund 76.4%.
- Where books disagree most — Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn: 66.7% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.9% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The day's most lopsided contest is Borussia Dortmund hosting SC Paderborn, where the market prices the home side at 76.4% to win—a 67-point book spread that towers over every other fixture. This reflects a clear tier separation; no other match sees a favorite above 55%. The next most decisive matchup is SC Freiburg at home against Borussia Mönchengladbach at 55.3%, still substantially closer than Dortmund's overwhelming advantage.
Augsburg versus Bayer Leverkusen presents the most compressed contest in terms of home-away split. The hosts are priced at just 22.5% despite playing at home, with Leverkusen's away win at 55.1% barely edging a draw at 22.4%. This near-parity between the draw and the home win is unusual; most other fixtures show clearer separation between outcomes. The 6.1% margin here is typical across the slate, suggesting consistent bookmaker efficiency.
The remaining three matches—Mainz against Frankfurt, Hoffenheim against Stuttgart, and Köln against Bremen—cluster in the middle ground. Mainz sits at 47% home probability and Frankfurt at 28% away, making it the closest to an even-money proposition on the day. Hoffenheim-Stuttgart leans slightly toward the away side at 34.5%, while Köln-Bremen shows similar structure at 45.3% home and 29.3% away. Bookmaker disagreement is marginal across all fixtures, with spreads ranging from 15 to 24 percentage points.
Prices captured 2026-09-07 02:58 UTC. Odds move.