Ligue 1 has 5 matches on Saturday, September 12. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:15 | Strasbourg vs AS Monaco | 3.10 | 3.69 | 2.15 | 30.5% / 25.5% / 44.0% |
| 18:45 | Le Havre vs Angers | 2.22 | 3.25 | 3.33 | 42.6% / 29.1% / 28.3% |
| 18:45 | Auxerre vs Nice | 2.57 | 3.30 | 2.72 | 36.7% / 28.6% / 34.7% |
| 18:45 | Lorient vs Toulouse | 2.62 | 3.24 | 2.72 | 36.1% / 29.2% / 34.7% |
| 18:45 | Paris FC vs Lyon | 2.65 | 3.55 | 2.51 | 35.7% / 26.6% / 37.7% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 23 books (Betclic (FR), Codere (IT), Winamax (FR), Coolbet, Unibet (FR), Winamax (DE)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Strasbourg vs AS Monaco
15:15 UTC · Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg · Season record: Strasbourg 2-0-1 / AS Monaco 3-0-0
The market leans AS Monaco at 44.0%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 14.0% on the widest side.
Le Havre vs Angers
18:45 UTC · Stade Océane, Le Havre · Season record: Le Havre 0-1-2 / Angers 1-0-2
The market leans Le Havre at 42.6%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 12.9% on the widest side.
Auxerre vs Nice
18:45 UTC · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre · Season record: Auxerre 0-0-3 / Nice 0-2-1
The market can barely separate them — 36.7% against 34.7%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 13.7% on the widest side.
Lorient vs Toulouse
18:45 UTC · Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Lorient · Season record: Lorient 1-1-1 / Toulouse 0-1-2
The market can barely separate them — 36.1% against 34.7%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 11.4% on the widest side.
Paris FC vs Lyon
18:45 UTC · Stade Jean Bouin, Paris · Season record: Paris FC 2-1-0 / Lyon 2-1-0
The market can barely separate them — 35.7% against 37.7%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 14.9% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Lorient vs Toulouse: 36.1% vs 34.7%.
- Most one-sided — Le Havre vs Angers: the market gives Le Havre 42.6%.
- Where books disagree most — Paris FC vs Lyon: 14.9% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.9% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The early kickoff between Strasbourg and AS Monaco stands out as the most lopsided contest on the slate. The market prices Monaco as clear favourites at 44.0% implied probability, while Strasbourg sits at just 30.5%. This 13.5-point gap is the largest home-away differential across all five matches, reflecting a notably one-sided market view. The draw probability of 25.5% is the lowest of the day, suggesting bookmakers expect a decisive result rather than a stalemate.
The three 18:45 UTC midday fixtures present a markedly tighter picture. Le Havre versus Angers is the closest to an even split, with home advantage priced at 42.6% compared to an away win at 28.3%—still a meaningful gap, but the 14.3-point margin is considerably narrower than Monaco's advantage. Auxerre-Nice and Lorient-Toulouse are near-identical in structure, both sitting around 36-35 point spreads with draw probabilities hovering near 29%, indicating the market sees these as genuinely competitive encounters. Paris FC-Lyon falls between these poles at a 37.7% away win versus 35.7% home win, with notable disagreement among the 23 bookmakers (14.9% spread), the highest variance on the card.
Margin consistency is tight across the day, clustering between 5.8% and 6.0%, suggesting uniform bookmaker efficiency. However, the book spreads vary more substantially—ranging from 11.4% for Lorient-Toulouse to 14.9% for Paris FC-Lyon—indicating material disagreement on specific matchups despite similar overround handling.
Prices captured 2026-09-07 02:58 UTC. Odds move.