Serie A has 3 matches on Saturday, September 12. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Genoa vs Frosinone | 2.02 | 3.39 | 3.72 | 46.7% / 27.9% / 25.4% |
| 16:00 | Lazio vs AC Milan | 3.23 | 3.19 | 2.29 | 29.2% / 29.6% / 41.2% |
| 18:45 | Atalanta BC vs Cagliari | 1.54 | 4.03 | 6.10 | 61.2% / 23.4% / 15.5% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 22 books (Winamax (FR), Unibet (FR), Codere (IT), Winamax (DE), Betclic (FR), Tipico). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Genoa vs Frosinone
13:00 UTC · Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genova · Season record: Genoa 0-0-3 / Frosinone 2-0-1
The market leans Genoa at 46.7%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 13.1% on the widest side.
Lazio vs AC Milan
16:00 UTC · Olimpico, Roma · Season record: Lazio 2-0-0 / AC Milan 2-1-0
The market leans AC Milan at 41.2%. Prices come from 21 books, and they differ by 13.1% on the widest side.
Atalanta BC vs Cagliari
18:45 UTC · New Balance Arena, Bergamo · Season record: Atalanta BC 2-0-1 / Cagliari 1-0-1
The market leans Atalanta BC at 61.2%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 22.2% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Lazio vs AC Milan: 29.2% vs 41.2%.
- Most one-sided — Atalanta BC vs Cagliari: the market gives Atalanta BC 61.2%.
- Where books disagree most — Atalanta BC vs Cagliari: 22.2% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 6.0% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The Genoa versus Frosinone match opens as the closest contest on the slate, with the market pricing a home win at just 46.7% against a 25.4% away probability. The draw carries meaningful weight at 27.9%, suggesting bookmakers see this as genuinely competitive rather than heavily favoring either side. Across 22 books, the spread of 13.1 percentage points on the primary outcome indicates real disagreement about which team the market should prefer, though the 5.9% margin suggests relatively efficient pricing overall.
Lazio and AC Milan present the day's most even three-way split, with the away win at 41.2%, a home win at 29.2%, and a draw at 29.6%. This is an unusual configuration where the visitor holds the largest single probability, yet the home and draw outcomes are nearly identical. The 21 books show a 13.1 point spread on outcomes, and the 6.0% margin is consistent with the other fixtures, indicating the market considers this genuinely uncertain despite the asymmetry favoring the away side.
Atalanta BC against Cagliari is the day's most one-sided matchup, with the home team priced at 61.2%—more than double Cagliari's 15.5% away probability. The 23.4% draw odds suggest bookmakers see some path to a stalemate despite the heavy home favoritism. The 22.2 percentage point spread across 22 books is notably the largest on the card, indicating that while most agree on Atalanta's superiority, disagreement persists about the precise margin of their advantage.
Prices captured 2026-09-07 02:58 UTC. Odds move.