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MLS Sunday, September 13: 9 matches, odds and implied probabilities

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MLS has 9 matches on Sunday, September 13. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeDrawAwayImplied
00:30FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers1.733.923.5751.9% / 23.0% / 25.2%
00:30Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC4.353.991.5720.6% / 22.4% / 57.0%
00:30St. Louis City SC vs Minnesota United FC1.923.523.1646.5% / 25.3% / 28.2%
01:30Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal1.603.854.3156.0% / 23.3% / 20.8%
01:30Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC1.833.553.4048.7% / 25.1% / 26.2%
02:30San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo2.263.472.5439.4% / 25.6% / 35.0%
02:30LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders FC1.973.542.9945.2% / 25.1% / 29.7%
21:30Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution1.603.934.0655.5% / 22.6% / 21.9%
22:30Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs Austin FC1.225.718.8174.0% / 15.8% / 10.2%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 19 books (LeoVegas (SE), Unibet (NL), Unibet (SE), PMU (FR), Betclic (FR), Betsson). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers

00:30 UTC · Toyota Stadium, Toyota Stadium · Season record: FC Dallas 10-7-6 / Portland Timbers 9-4-10

The market leans FC Dallas at 51.9%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 284.6% on the widest side.

Sporting Kansas City vs Los Angeles FC

00:30 UTC

The market leans Los Angeles FC at 57.0%. Prices come from 17 books, and they differ by 380.8% on the widest side.

St. Louis City SC vs Minnesota United FC

00:30 UTC · Energizer Park, St. Louis, Missouri · Season record: St. Louis City SC 10-7-6 / Minnesota United FC 7-8-8

The market leans St. Louis City SC at 46.5%. Prices come from 17 books, and they differ by 241.3% on the widest side.

Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal

01:30 UTC

The market leans Colorado Rapids at 56.0%. Prices come from 17 books, and they differ by 380.8% on the widest side.

Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC

01:30 UTC · America First Field, Sandy, Utah · Season record: Real Salt Lake 8-5-9 / New York City FC 7-8-8

The market leans Real Salt Lake at 48.7%. Prices come from 17 books, and they differ by 275.0% on the widest side.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo

02:30 UTC · PayPal Park, San Jose, California · Season record: San Jose Earthquakes 10-5-8 / Houston Dynamo 12-4-7

The market can barely separate them — 39.4% against 35.0%. Prices come from 17 books, and they differ by 169.2% on the widest side.

LA Galaxy vs Seattle Sounders FC

02:30 UTC · Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, California · Season record: LA Galaxy 7-8-9 / Seattle Sounders FC 7-6-9

The market leans LA Galaxy at 45.2%. Prices come from 17 books, and they differ by 226.9% on the widest side.

Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution

21:30 UTC · Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois · Season record: Chicago Fire 11-5-6 / New England Revolution 11-4-8

The market leans Chicago Fire at 55.5%. Prices come from 16 books, and they differ by 351.9% on the widest side.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs Austin FC

22:30 UTC · BC Place, Vancouver · Season record: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 13-4-5 / Austin FC 6-7-10

The market leans Vancouver Whitecaps FC at 74.0%. Prices come from 16 books, and they differ by 938.5% on the widest side.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo: 39.4% vs 35.0%.
  • Most one-sided — Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs Austin FC: the market gives Vancouver Whitecaps FC 74.0%.
  • Where books disagree most — Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs Austin FC: 938.5% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 11.9% across the slate.

Reading the slate

The Vancouver Whitecaps-Austin FC matchup stands out as the day's most lopsided contest, with the home side priced at 74.0% to win. This is a notably higher implied probability than any other fixture on the slate, and the 938.5% book spread—how much bookmakers differ in their odds—reflects substantial disagreement among outlets on just how dominant Vancouver should be. By contrast, the Sporting Kansas City versus Los Angeles FC fixture tilts sharply the opposite direction, pricing the away side at 57.0%, making it one of the clearest away-favored matchups in the round.

The middle tier of matches shows relatively tight markets. Dallas versus Portland, St. Louis versus Minnesota, and Chicago versus New England all feature home sides priced between 51.9% and 55.5%, with draw probabilities clustering around 22–26%. Real Salt Lake against New York City and LA Galaxy against Seattle both hover near 45–48% for the home team, suggesting tighter expected outcomes. These central matches have margins between 11.7% and 12.5%, indicating the books are holding similar vig across them.

Colorado's 56.0% home probability against Montreal represents a moderate home advantage, while San Jose and Houston present the closest match of the evening outside the away-favored KC-LAFC encounter, with the Earthquakes at 39.4% and Houston at 35.0%. The consistency of margins across most matches—clustering in the 11–12% range—suggests relatively uniform bookmaker practice throughout the slate, with the notable exception of Vancouver's outlier spread.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-09-08 00:02 UTC. Odds move.

MLS Sunday, September 13: 9 matches, odds and implied probabilities

Comments (1)

  • wintermeadow124

    Vancouver looking like a lock at 74% implied, but those massive odds on Austin suggest sharp money might see value there.