Serie A has 3 matches on Sunday, September 13. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Lecce vs Monza | 2.54 | 3.11 | 2.89 | 37.1% / 30.3% / 32.6% |
| 16:00 | Napoli vs Bologna | 1.72 | 3.63 | 5.00 | 55.0% / 26.1% / 18.9% |
| 18:45 | Sassuolo vs Juventus | 5.53 | 3.97 | 1.59 | 17.1% / 23.7% / 59.2% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 22 books (Winamax (FR), Codere (IT), Betclic (FR), Tipico, Unibet (FR), Winamax (DE)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Lecce vs Monza
13:00 UTC · Via Del Mare, Lecce · Season record: Lecce 1-0-2 / Monza 0-1-2
The market can barely separate them — 37.1% against 32.6%. Prices come from 21 books, and they differ by 22.0% on the widest side.
Napoli vs Bologna
16:00 UTC · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli · Season record: Napoli 1-0-2 / Bologna 0-1-2
The market leans Napoli at 55.0%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 21.7% on the widest side.
Sassuolo vs Juventus
18:45 UTC · Mapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia · Season record: Sassuolo 1-1-1 / Juventus 2-1-0
The market leans Juventus at 59.2%. Prices come from 21 books, and they differ by 14.0% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Lecce vs Monza: 37.1% vs 32.6%.
- Most one-sided — Sassuolo vs Juventus: the market gives Juventus 59.2%.
- Where books disagree most — Lecce vs Monza: 22.0% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.9% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The early kickoff between Lecce and Monza presents the week's most competitive matchup. The market prices them almost as equals, with the home side given just a 4.5 percentage point edge despite playing at home. A draw is well within the consensus view at 30.3%, making this a genuinely open contest from the bookmakers' perspective. The 22-point spread between shortest and longest odds across the 21 books consulted suggests some material disagreement in the market, indicating that professionals haven't settled on a clear lean.
Napoli's fixture against Bologna sees the sharpest market consensus. The home side is priced at 55% to win, giving them a commanding 36.1 percentage point advantage over the away team. This 37-point gap is the largest margin on the slate and indicates the market has identified a substantial performance differential. The relatively tight 21.7-point book spread despite 22 operators suggests agreement on fundamentals, even if individual odds differ slightly in execution.
Sassuolo versus Juventus sits at the opposite extreme, with away odds reflecting a 59.2% win probability for the visitors. This is the most lopsided fixture of the day, with Juventus favoured by 42.1 points over their hosts. Interestingly, the book spread here is the narrowest on the card at 14.0 points, suggesting strong consensus among bookmakers on this pairing's likely outcome. The home win probability of 17.1% is the lowest single outcome priced across all three matches.
Prices captured 2026-09-08 00:02 UTC. Odds move.