EPL has 2 matches on Sunday, September 13. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Coventry City vs Brighton and Hove Albion | 4.12 | 3.72 | 1.84 | 23.0% / 25.5% / 51.5% |
| 15:30 | Manchester United vs Manchester City | 3.06 | 3.83 | 2.15 | 31.0% / 24.8% / 44.2% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 23 books (Tipico, Unibet (FR), Codere (IT), Winamax (DE), Winamax (FR), Betclic (FR)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Coventry City vs Brighton and Hove Albion
13:00 UTC · Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry · Season record: Coventry City 0-0-3 / Brighton and Hove Albion 1-1-1
The market leans Brighton and Hove Albion at 51.5%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 12.1% on the widest side.
Manchester United vs Manchester City
15:30 UTC · Old Trafford, Manchester · Season record: Manchester United 1-1-1 / Manchester City 3-0-0
The market leans Manchester City at 44.2%. Prices come from 23 books, and they differ by 14.0% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Manchester United vs Manchester City: 31.0% vs 44.2%.
- Most one-sided — Coventry City vs Brighton and Hove Albion: the market gives Brighton and Hove Albion 51.5%.
- Where books disagree most — Manchester United vs Manchester City: 14.0% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.4% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The early kickoff sees Brighton heavily favored against Coventry City, with the away side priced at around 51.5% implied probability—nearly double the home side's 23.0% chance. The draw sits comfortably in the middle at 25.5%, suggesting the market views this as a fairly clear-cut affair rather than a tight contest. With a book spread of 12.1% across 23 bookmakers, there's notable consensus around Brighton's superiority, though the 5.4% overround indicates standard margin compression typical of high-liquidity EPL fixtures.
The Manchester derby presents a notably tighter proposition. Manchester City are favored at 44.2% implied probability, but Manchester United's 31.0% is substantially higher than Coventry's 23.0%, pointing to a genuinely competitive matchup rather than a one-sided affair. The draw probability of 24.8% reflects genuine uncertainty about the outcome. This fixture shows the largest book spread on the card at 14.0%, suggesting sharper disagreement among bookmakers despite the same 5.4% overround—the market is pricing a closer margin, which naturally produces wider variance in how individual operators approach their odds.
Comparing the two matches, the derby is priced as the day's closest contest while the early game represents the clearest favorite. Both fixtures carry identical overround, making them equally efficient from a margin perspective, but the tighter odds in the Manchester game reflect higher intrinsic uncertainty about the result.
Prices captured 2026-09-08 00:01 UTC. Odds move.