NCAAF has 6 matches on Sunday, September 13. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:00 | Air Force Falcons vs North Dakota State Bison | 2.28 | 1.63 | 41.8% / 58.2% |
| 02:15 | Utah Utes vs Arkansas Razorbacks | 1.18 | 4.77 | 80.1% / 19.9% |
| 02:30 | Fresno State Bulldogs vs Sacramento State Hornets | 1.08 | 7.77 | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| 02:30 | Nevada Wolf Pack vs Montana State Bobcats | 2.65 | 1.48 | 35.8% / 64.2% |
| 03:00 | USC Trojans vs Louisiana Ragin Cajuns | 1.01 | 21.25 | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| 04:00 | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs New Mexico State Aggies | 1.26 | 3.90 | 75.6% / 24.4% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 9 books (BetOnline.ag, Coolbet, Marathon Bet, MyBookie.ag, Pinnacle, LeoVegas (SE)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Air Force Falcons vs North Dakota State Bison
02:00 UTC · Falcon Stadium, USAF Academy · Season record: Air Force Falcons 1-0 / North Dakota State Bison 2-0
The market leans North Dakota State Bison at 58.2%. Prices come from 7 books, and they differ by 6.4% on the widest side.
Utah Utes vs Arkansas Razorbacks
02:15 UTC · Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City · Season record: Utah Utes 1-0 / Arkansas Razorbacks 1-0
The market leans Utah Utes at 80.1%. Prices come from 9 books, and they differ by 7.7% on the widest side.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs Sacramento State Hornets
02:30 UTC · Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan · Season record: Fresno State Bulldogs 1-0 / Sacramento State Hornets 0-1
The market leans Fresno State Bulldogs at 87.8%. Prices come from 7 books, and they differ by 12.5% on the widest side.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs Montana State Bobcats
02:30 UTC · Mackay Stadium, Reno · Season record: Nevada Wolf Pack 1-0 / Montana State Bobcats 2-0
The market leans Montana State Bobcats at 64.2%. Prices come from 2 books, and they differ by 0.7% on the widest side.
USC Trojans vs Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
03:00 UTC · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles · Season record: USC Trojans 2-0 / Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 1-0
The market leans USC Trojans at 95.5%. Prices come from 2 books, and they differ by 57.6% on the widest side.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs New Mexico State Aggies
04:00 UTC · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu · Season record: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 0-2 / New Mexico State Aggies 1-1
The market leans Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at 75.6%. Prices come from 9 books, and they differ by 5.8% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Air Force Falcons vs North Dakota State Bison: 41.8% vs 58.2%.
- Most one-sided — USC Trojans vs Louisiana Ragin Cajuns: the market gives USC Trojans 95.5%.
- Where books disagree most — USC Trojans vs Louisiana Ragin Cajuns: 57.6% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.1% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The slate features a wide range of expected competitiveness, from the heavily favored USC Trojans at 95.5% implied probability to a more balanced matchup between Air Force and North Dakota State. USC's implied win probability is notably the highest on the card, though only two books are pricing that contest, which introduces some uncertainty in those numbers. At the other end, Nevada against Montana State sits at 35.8% for the home side, making it the closest to a toss-up despite the away team being favored by the market.
Fresno State's dominance over Sacramento State stands out with 87.8% implied probability, the second-highest on the slate after USC. The book spread of 12.5 percentage points there is the largest disagreement among the seven books involved, suggesting less consensus than the implied numbers alone might suggest. Nevada-Montana State presents the opposite picture: only two books are pricing it, but they show minimal spread of just 0.7 percentage points, indicating strong agreement despite the lopsided implied probability favoring the visiting Bobcats.
Utah enters as a clear home favorite against Arkansas at 80.1%, with moderate disagreement across nine books reflected in the 7.7 percentage point spread. The remaining contests—Hawaii against New Mexico State and Air Force against North Dakota State—sit in the middle tiers of expected probability, with Hawaii more heavily favored at 75.6% than Air Force at 41.8%, though both have reasonably consistent pricing across nine and seven books respectively.
Prices captured 2026-09-08 00:00 UTC. Odds move.