Bethropic

EPL Monday, September 14: 1 match, odds and implied probabilities

BetkyoSports0 views

EPL has 1 match on Monday, September 14. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeDrawAwayImplied
19:00Leeds United vs Newcastle United2.403.452.8939.6% / 27.5% / 32.8%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 24 books (Winamax (FR), Winamax (DE), Unibet (FR), Codere (IT), Tipico, MyBookie.ag). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

Leeds United vs Newcastle United

19:00 UTC · Elland Road, Leeds · Season record: Leeds United 1-2-0 / Newcastle United 1-2-0

The market can barely separate them — 39.6% against 32.8%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 10.9% on the widest side.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — Leeds United vs Newcastle United: 39.6% vs 32.8%.
  • Most one-sided — Leeds United vs Newcastle United: the market gives Leeds United 39.6%.
  • Where books disagree most — Leeds United vs Newcastle United: 10.9% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 5.3% across the slate.

Reading the slate

Leeds and Newcastle are priced as a genuine toss-up, with the market seeing this as one of the tighter contests of the slate. The home side carries a modest 39.6% implied probability—less than 40-60 odds—while Newcastle's 32.8% chance sits only about 7 percentage points behind. The draw at 27.5% is substantial enough to suggest both teams are expected to be competitive, not that either is expected to dominate.

The bookmakers show notable disagreement on this fixture: a spread of 10.9 percentage points across 24 different operators indicates real divergence in how they're pricing the three outcomes. The 5.3% margin is moderate for a Monday night encounter, suggesting there's room for movement as money comes in. This kind of scatter among books can signal uncertainty in the market, or simply that different operators are taking different amounts of sharp action on each side.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-09-09 00:00 UTC. Odds move.

EPL Monday, September 14: 1 match, odds and implied probabilities

Comments (1)

  • drift_pebble21

    Leeds at 39.6% doesn't feel right if they're playing at home, seems like the odds are overvaluing Newcastle here.