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MLS Monday, September 14: 1 match, odds and implied probabilities

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MLS has 1 match on Monday, September 14. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeDrawAwayImplied
01:00San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union2.423.542.3036.6% / 25.0% / 38.4%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 16 books (Unibet (NL), Unibet (SE), PMU (FR), LeoVegas (SE), MyBookie.ag, Winamax (DE)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union

01:00 UTC · Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California · Season record: San Diego FC 8-6-9 / Philadelphia Union 7-6-10

The market can barely separate them — 36.6% against 38.4%. Prices come from 16 books, and they differ by 159.6% on the widest side.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union: 36.6% vs 38.4%.
  • Most one-sided — San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union: the market gives Philadelphia Union 38.4%.
  • Where books disagree most — San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union: 159.6% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 13.1% across the slate.

Reading the slate

San Diego and Philadelphia are priced almost as a coin flip, with the Union holding just a 1.8 percentage point edge in the market's eyes despite playing away. The implied probabilities sit at 36.6% for the hosts and 38.4% for the visitors, making this one of the tightest matchups possible. The draw probability of 25.0% sits comfortably between the two, suggesting bookmakers see genuine uncertainty about which way this contest breaks.

The margin of 13.1% across 16 bookmakers indicates reasonable consensus on the shape of the match, even if individual odds vary. With a book spread of 159.6%, there's notable variance in how different sportsbooks are pricing the three outcomes, meaning bettors should expect to find materially different odds depending on which operator they use. The overround of roughly 60% suggests this is a standard MLS pricing.

This fixture appears to be a genuine toss-up from the market's perspective, with the outcome hinging on which team executes better on the night rather than clear pre-match favouritism.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-09-09 00:01 UTC. Odds move.

MLS Monday, September 14: 1 match, odds and implied probabilities

Comments (1)

  • greylark

    Philadelphia getting favored away despite San Diego's home field advantage is interesting - that 1.8% edge seems razor thin for a road team.