MLS has 1 match on Friday, September 18. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:30 | New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.10 | 3.51 | 50.8% / 22.7% / 26.5% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 4 books (LeoVegas (SE), Unibet (NL), Unibet (SE), PMU (FR)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
23:30 UTC · Yankee Stadium, New York City · Season record: New York City FC 7-8-9 / New York Red Bulls 7-6-11
The market leans New York City FC at 50.8%. Prices come from 4 books, and they differ by 7.4% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls: 50.8% vs 26.5%.
- Most one-sided — New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls: the market gives New York City FC 50.8%.
- Where books disagree most — New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls: 7.4% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 7.4% across the slate.
Reading the slate
New York City FC are slight favorites in the Hudson River Derby, with the market pricing them at just over 50% to win. The 7.4% margin between the two sides is modest—bookmakers see this as a genuinely competitive fixture rather than a mismatch. A draw sits at nearly 23%, which is a plausible outcome given the relatively narrow gap between the teams in win probability.
The four bookmakers consulted show perfect agreement on the margin here, suggesting strong consensus that this matchup is close. With NYCFC's win probability barely above the coin-flip threshold and New York Red Bulls holding a quarter of the implied chances, the market is effectively treating this as a toss-up with a slight lean toward the home side. The fairly even distribution across all three outcomes reflects the uncertainty inherent in a rivalry match.
Prices captured 2026-09-13 00:01 UTC. Odds move.