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NCAAF Saturday, September 19: 45 matches, odds and implied probabilities

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NCAAF has 45 matches on Saturday, September 19. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeAwayImplied
00:00Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Houston Cougars1.283.6474.0% / 26.0%
15:30Delaware Blue Hens vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers1.472.6764.5% / 35.5%
16:00Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Akron Zips1.0213.6593.0% / 7.0%
16:00Arizona State Sun Devils vs Kansas Jayhawks1.452.7365.3% / 34.7%
16:00Arkansas Razorbacks vs Georgia Bulldogs12.831.027.4% / 92.6%
16:00Iowa State Cyclones vs Bowling Green Falcons1.0312.2692.3% / 7.7%
16:00Penn State Nittany Lions vs Buffalo Bulls1.0021.0095.5% / 4.5%
16:00Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels1.572.3960.3% / 39.7%
16:00Kansas State Wildcats vs Tulane Green Wave1.059.4490.0% / 10.0%
16:00Texas State Bobcats vs North Texas Mean Green1.692.1656.0% / 44.0%
16:30Wisconsin Badgers vs Eastern Michigan Eagles1.0213.3092.9% / 7.1%
16:45Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack1.512.5362.7% / 37.3%
17:00Central Michigan Chippewas vs Wyoming Cowboys1.811.9852.2% / 47.8%
19:00Toledo Rockets vs Temple Owls1.442.7465.5% / 34.5%
19:30Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida State Seminoles1.068.8289.2% / 10.8%
19:30Cincinnati Bearcats vs Miami (OH) RedHawks1.135.8083.7% / 16.3%
19:30Texas A&M Aggies vs Kentucky Wildcats1.116.3985.2% / 14.8%
19:30Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs1.782.0253.1% / 46.9%
19:30Michigan Wolverines vs UTEP Miners1.0021.0095.5% / 4.5%
19:30Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs USC Trojans13.341.027.1% / 92.9%
19:30Utah Utes vs Utah State Aggies1.0118.0094.7% / 5.3%
20:00Liberty Flames vs Ball State Cardinals1.136.1384.5% / 15.5%
20:00Baylor Bears vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs1.097.2887.0% / 13.0%
20:00Duke Blue Devils vs Stanford Cardinal1.263.8475.2% / 24.8%
20:15South Carolina Gamecocks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs1.572.4060.4% / 39.6%
22:00Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Charlotte 49ers1.078.5988.9% / 11.1%
22:00Old Dominion Monarchs vs East Carolina Pirates1.702.1656.0% / 44.0%
22:00Florida Atlantic Owls vs Florida International Panthers1.383.0368.7% / 31.3%
22:30Missouri State Bears vs Marshall Thundering Herd2.391.5739.6% / 60.4%
23:00Auburn Tigers vs Florida Gators2.141.7144.5% / 55.5%
23:00Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Georgia Southern Eagles1.552.4561.2% / 38.8%
23:00UCF Knights vs Georgia State Panthers1.069.3989.9% / 10.1%
23:00Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Nevada Wolf Pack2.871.4233.1% / 66.9%
23:00Missouri Tigers vs Troy Trojans1.0116.2794.1% / 5.9%
23:00South Alabama Jaguars vs Ohio Bobcats1.502.5763.1% / 36.9%
23:00Rice Owls vs Western Michigan Broncos4.581.2020.8% / 79.2%
23:00Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs UConn Huskies2.371.5840.0% / 60.0%
23:30Colorado State Rams vs BYU Cougars7.751.0812.3% / 87.7%
23:30Northwestern Wildcats vs Colorado Buffaloes1.532.5062.1% / 37.9%
23:30Ole Miss Rebels vs LSU Tigers2.221.6742.9% / 57.1%
23:30Maryland Terrapins vs Virginia Tech Hokies2.291.6341.6% / 58.4%
23:30Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Michigan State Spartans1.0118.2594.8% / 5.2%
23:30Oklahoma Sooners vs New Mexico Lobos1.0311.8692.0% / 8.0%
23:30West Virginia Mountaineers vs Virginia Cavaliers3.851.2624.6% / 75.4%
23:45Tennessee Volunteers vs Kennesaw State Owls1.0021.0095.5% / 4.5%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 11 books (Nordic Bet, Betsson, MyBookie.ag, Coolbet, William Hill, Unibet (NL)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Houston Cougars

00:00 UTC · Galaxy Stadium, Lubbock · Season record: Texas Tech Red Raiders 2-0 / Houston Cougars 2-0

The market leans Texas Tech Red Raiders at 74.0%. Prices come from 11 books, and they differ by 15.5% on the widest side.

Delaware Blue Hens vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

15:30 UTC · Delaware Stadium, Newark · Season record: Delaware Blue Hens 1-1 / Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 1-1

The market leans Delaware Blue Hens at 64.5%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 4.2% on the widest side.

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Akron Zips

16:00 UTC · Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis · Season record: Minnesota Golden Gophers 1-1 / Akron Zips 1-1

The market leans Minnesota Golden Gophers at 93.0%. Prices come from 7 books, and they differ by 45.8% on the widest side.

Arizona State Sun Devils vs Kansas Jayhawks

16:00 UTC · Wembley Stadium, London · neutral venue · Season record: Arizona State Sun Devils 1-1 / Kansas Jayhawks 1-1

The market leans Arizona State Sun Devils at 65.3%. Prices come from 11 books, and they differ by 9.6% on the widest side.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Georgia Bulldogs

16:00 UTC · Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville · Season record: Arkansas Razorbacks 1-1 / Georgia Bulldogs 2-0

The market leans Georgia Bulldogs at 92.6%. Prices come from 11 books, and they differ by 36.6% on the widest side.

Iowa State Cyclones vs Bowling Green Falcons

16:00 UTC · Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan · Season record: Iowa State Cyclones 2-0 / Bowling Green Falcons 1-1

The market leans Iowa State Cyclones at 92.3%. Prices come from 11 books, and they differ by 49.5% on the widest side.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Buffalo Bulls

16:00 UTC · Beaver Stadium, University Park · Season record: Penn State Nittany Lions 2-0 / Buffalo Bulls 1-1

The market leans Penn State Nittany Lions at 95.5%. Prices come from 1 book.

Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels

16:00 UTC · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC), Clemson · Season record: Clemson Tigers 1-1 / North Carolina Tar Heels 2-0

The market leans Clemson Tigers at 60.3%. Prices come from 11 books, and they differ by 11.4% on the widest side.

Kansas State Wildcats vs Tulane Green Wave

16:00 UTC · Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan · Season record: Kansas State Wildcats 2-0 / Tulane Green Wave 1-1

The market leans Kansas State Wildcats at 90.0%. Prices come from 11 books, and they differ by 31.3% on the widest side.

Texas State Bobcats vs North Texas Mean Green

16:00 UTC · Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan · Season record: Texas State Bobcats 2-0 / North Texas Mean Green 1-1

The market leans Texas State Bobcats at 56.0%. Prices come from 9 books, and they differ by 4.8% on the widest side.

Wisconsin Badgers vs Eastern Michigan Eagles

16:30 UTC · Camp Randall Stadium, Madison · Season record: Wisconsin Badgers 1-1 / Eastern Michigan Eagles 1-2

The market leans Wisconsin Badgers at 92.9%. Prices come from 10 books, and they differ by 38.3% on the widest side.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs NC State Wolfpack

16:45 UTC · FirstBank Stadium, Nashville · Season record: Vanderbilt Commodores 2-0 / NC State Wolfpack 1-1

The market leans Vanderbilt Commodores at 62.7%. Prices come from 11 books, and they differ by 8.3% on the widest side.

Central Michigan Chippewas vs Wyoming Cowboys

17:00 UTC · Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant · Season record: Central Michigan Chippewas 1-1 / Wyoming Cowboys 1-1

The market can barely separate them — 52.2% against 47.8%. Prices come from 11 books, and they differ by 5.8% on the widest side.

Toledo Rockets vs Temple Owls

19:00 UTC · Glass Bowl, Toledo · Season record: Toledo Rockets 1-1 / Temple Owls 1-1

The market leans Toledo Rockets at 65.5%. Prices come from 11 books, and they differ by 12.6% on the widest side.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida State Seminoles

19:30 UTC · Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa · Season record: Alabama Crimson Tide 2-0 / Florida State Seminoles 1-1

The market leans Alabama Crimson Tide at 89.2%. Prices come from 11 books, and they differ by 31.3% on the widest side.

Cincinnati Bearcats vs Miami (OH) RedHawks

19:30 UTC · TQL Stadium, Cincinnati · Season record: Cincinnati Bearcats 2-0 / Miami (OH) RedHawks 1-1

The market leans Cincinnati Bearcats at 83.7%. Prices come from 9 books, and they differ by 22.5% on the widest side.

Texas A&M Aggies vs Kentucky Wildcats

19:30 UTC · Kyle Field, College Station · Season record: Texas A&M Aggies 2-0 / Kentucky Wildcats 1-1

The market leans Texas A&M Aggies at 85.2%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 5.6% on the widest side.

Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs

19:30 UTC · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville · Season record: Louisville Cardinals 1-1 / SMU Mustangs 2-0

The market can barely separate them — 53.1% against 46.9%. Prices come from 11 books, and they differ by 8.9% on the widest side.

Michigan Wolverines vs UTEP Miners

19:30 UTC · Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor · Season record: Michigan Wolverines 2-0 / UTEP Miners 1-1

The market leans Michigan Wolverines at 95.5%. Prices come from 1 book.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs USC Trojans

19:30 UTC · SHI Stadium, Piscataway · Season record: Rutgers Scarlet Knights 0-2 / USC Trojans 3-0

The market leans USC Trojans at 92.9%. Prices come from 10 books, and they differ by 56.9% on the widest side.

Utah Utes vs Utah State Aggies

19:30 UTC · Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City · Season record: Utah Utes 2-0 / Utah State Aggies 0-2

The market leans Utah Utes at 94.7%. Prices come from 5 books, and they differ by 84.0% on the widest side.

Liberty Flames vs Ball State Cardinals

20:00 UTC · Williams Stadium (VA), Lynchburg · Season record: Liberty Flames 1-1 / Ball State Cardinals 1-1

The market leans Liberty Flames at 84.5%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 37.3% on the widest side.

Baylor Bears vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

20:00 UTC · Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta · Season record: Baylor Bears 0-2 / Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 2-1

The market leans Baylor Bears at 87.0%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 14.7% on the widest side.

Duke Blue Devils vs Stanford Cardinal

20:00 UTC · Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham · Season record: Duke Blue Devils 2-0 / Stanford Cardinal 1-1

The market leans Duke Blue Devils at 75.2%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 16.2% on the widest side.

South Carolina Gamecocks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

20:15 UTC · Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia · Season record: South Carolina Gamecocks 2-0 / Mississippi State Bulldogs 2-0

The market leans South Carolina Gamecocks at 60.4%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 8.9% on the widest side.

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Charlotte 49ers

22:00 UTC · Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone · Season record: Appalachian State Mountaineers 2-0 / Charlotte 49ers 0-2

The market leans Appalachian State Mountaineers at 88.9%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 6.0% on the widest side.

Old Dominion Monarchs vs East Carolina Pirates

22:00 UTC · S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk · Season record: Old Dominion Monarchs 1-1 / East Carolina Pirates 0-2

The market leans Old Dominion Monarchs at 56.0%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 5.7% on the widest side.

Florida Atlantic Owls vs Florida International Panthers

22:00 UTC · Flagler Credit Union Stadium, Boca Raton · Season record: Florida Atlantic Owls 1-1 / Florida International Panthers 1-1

The market leans Florida Atlantic Owls at 68.7%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 3.7% on the widest side.

Missouri State Bears vs Marshall Thundering Herd

22:30 UTC · Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield · Season record: Missouri State Bears 1-1 / Marshall Thundering Herd 1-1

The market leans Marshall Thundering Herd at 60.4%. Prices come from 6 books, and they differ by 5.1% on the widest side.

Auburn Tigers vs Florida Gators

23:00 UTC · Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn · Season record: Auburn Tigers 2-0 / Florida Gators 2-0

The market leans Florida Gators at 55.5%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 8.4% on the widest side.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs Georgia Southern Eagles

23:00 UTC · AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville · Season record: Jacksonville State Gamecocks 1-2 / Georgia Southern Eagles 1-1

The market leans Jacksonville State Gamecocks at 61.2%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 5.0% on the widest side.

UCF Knights vs Georgia State Panthers

23:00 UTC · Acrisure Bounce House, Orlando · Season record: UCF Knights 1-1 / Georgia State Panthers 2-0

The market leans UCF Knights at 89.9%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 20.5% on the widest side.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Nevada Wolf Pack

23:00 UTC · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro · Season record: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 1-1 / Nevada Wolf Pack 1-1

The market leans Nevada Wolf Pack at 66.9%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 12.4% on the widest side.

Missouri Tigers vs Troy Trojans

23:00 UTC · Memorial Stadium, Columbia · Season record: Missouri Tigers 2-0 / Troy Trojans 2-0

The market leans Missouri Tigers at 94.1%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 52.0% on the widest side.

South Alabama Jaguars vs Ohio Bobcats

23:00 UTC · Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile · Season record: South Alabama Jaguars 1-1 / Ohio Bobcats 1-1

The market leans South Alabama Jaguars at 63.1%. Prices come from 7 books, and they differ by 6.1% on the widest side.

Rice Owls vs Western Michigan Broncos

23:00 UTC · Rice Stadium, Houston · Season record: Rice Owls 1-1 / Western Michigan Broncos 1-1

The market leans Western Michigan Broncos at 79.2%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 23.7% on the widest side.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs UConn Huskies

23:00 UTC · M. M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg · Season record: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 1-1 / UConn Huskies 1-1

The market leans UConn Huskies at 60.0%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 5.7% on the widest side.

Colorado State Rams vs BYU Cougars

23:30 UTC · Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins · Season record: Colorado State Rams 2-0 / BYU Cougars 2-0

The market leans BYU Cougars at 87.7%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 37.1% on the widest side.

Northwestern Wildcats vs Colorado Buffaloes

23:30 UTC · Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium, Evanston · Season record: Northwestern Wildcats 1-0 / Colorado Buffaloes 2-0

The market leans Northwestern Wildcats at 62.1%. Prices come from 7 books, and they differ by 9.6% on the widest side.

Ole Miss Rebels vs LSU Tigers

23:30 UTC · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford · Season record: Ole Miss Rebels 2-0 / LSU Tigers 2-0

The market leans LSU Tigers at 57.1%. Prices come from 6 books, and they differ by 12.7% on the widest side.

Maryland Terrapins vs Virginia Tech Hokies

23:30 UTC · SECU Stadium, College Park · Season record: Maryland Terrapins 2-0 / Virginia Tech Hokies 2-0

The market leans Virginia Tech Hokies at 58.4%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 5.0% on the widest side.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Michigan State Spartans

23:30 UTC · Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame · Season record: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2-0 / Michigan State Spartans 2-0

The market leans Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 94.8%. Prices come from 5 books, and they differ by 67.3% on the widest side.

Oklahoma Sooners vs New Mexico Lobos

23:30 UTC · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK), Norman · Season record: Oklahoma Sooners 1-1 / New Mexico Lobos 2-0

The market leans Oklahoma Sooners at 92.0%. Prices come from 7 books, and they differ by 23.8% on the widest side.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs Virginia Cavaliers

23:30 UTC · Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte · neutral venue · Season record: West Virginia Mountaineers 2-0 / Virginia Cavaliers 2-0

The market leans Virginia Cavaliers at 75.4%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 15.5% on the widest side.

Tennessee Volunteers vs Kennesaw State Owls

23:45 UTC · Neyland Stadium, Knoxville · Season record: Tennessee Volunteers 2-0 / Kennesaw State Owls 1-1

The market leans Tennessee Volunteers at 95.5%. Prices come from 1 book.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — Central Michigan Chippewas vs Wyoming Cowboys: 52.2% vs 47.8%.
  • Most one-sided — Penn State Nittany Lions vs Buffalo Bulls: the market gives Penn State Nittany Lions 95.5%.
  • Where books disagree most — Utah Utes vs Utah State Aggies: 84.0% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 5.3% across the slate.

Reading the slate

The market has priced most of this Saturday's slate with narrow consensus around 5–6 percentage point margins between implied home and away probabilities. The heaviest one-sided contests feature Penn State, Michigan, and Tennessee all above 95% implied to win, all tracked by only a single book. On the flip side, Utah versus Utah State stands out sharply: the market grades Utah as 94.7% favourites, but there's a massive 84-point spread between bookmakers across just five outlets—suggesting genuine disagreement about how decisive that matchup will be. Notre Dame versus Michigan State also shows large dispersion (67.3 points across five books), as does Rutgers versus USC (57 points across ten books), indicating bookmakers are genuinely split on those contests despite an overall consensus line.

Several fixtures cluster around true tossups. Central Michigan versus Wyoming sits at 52.2% implied for the home side with bookmakers scattered across a 5.8-point range, while Louisville versus SMU (53.1% home) and Texas State versus North Texas (56% home) also show relatively balanced markets. By contrast, the non-conference mismatch matchups—Iowa State, Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Alabama all above 89% favoured—are marked by wide spreads between books (31–49 points), suggesting bookmakers differ on the magnitude of advantage despite agreeing on direction.

The slate includes several matches where the implied probability doesn't align neatly with book disagreement. Arkansas versus Georgia and Colorado State versus BYU are heavily one-sided (92.6% and 87.7% away favourites respectively), yet books show moderate scatter. Meanwhile, some closer contests like Delaware versus Coastal Carolina (64.5% home) generate minimal book variance despite meaningful tail risk to the underdog, hinting that even narrow matchups may have established reference points across the market.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC. Odds move.

NCAAF Saturday, September 19: 45 matches, odds and implied probabilities

Comments (1)

  • pebble301

    Penn State at 95.5% seems way too high even against Buffalo, that's basically saying they can't lose lol.