Bundesliga has 5 matches on Saturday, September 19. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln | 2.71 | 3.58 | 2.42 | 34.8% / 26.3% / 38.9% |
| 13:30 | Werder Bremen vs Augsburg | 2.31 | 3.78 | 2.76 | 40.9% / 25.0% / 34.2% |
| 13:30 | Borussia Monchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 | 2.89 | 3.69 | 2.24 | 32.5% / 25.5% / 42.0% |
| 13:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg | 2.34 | 3.74 | 2.71 | 40.2% / 25.2% / 34.7% |
| 16:30 | VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund | 2.25 | 3.82 | 2.81 | 41.8% / 24.7% / 33.5% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 24 books (888sport, William Hill, Winamax (DE), Winamax (FR), Betclic (FR), 1xBet). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln
13:30 UTC
The market can barely separate them — 34.8% against 38.9%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 14.4% on the widest side.
Werder Bremen vs Augsburg
13:30 UTC · Weserstadion, Bremen · Season record: Werder Bremen 1-1-1 / Augsburg 2-1-0
The market can barely separate them — 40.9% against 34.2%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 15.6% on the widest side.
Borussia Monchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05
13:30 UTC · BORUSSIA-PARK, Mönchengladbach · Season record: Borussia Monchengladbach 0-0-3 / FSV Mainz 05 1-1-1
The market leans FSV Mainz 05 at 42.0%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 16.6% on the widest side.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg
13:30 UTC · Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt · Season record: Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1-1 / SC Freiburg 3-0-0
The market can barely separate them — 40.2% against 34.7%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 15.3% on the widest side.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
16:30 UTC · MHPArena, Stuttgart · Season record: VfB Stuttgart 1-0-2 / Borussia Dortmund 3-0-0
The market leans VfB Stuttgart at 41.8%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 16.1% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln: 34.8% vs 38.9%.
- Most one-sided — Borussia Monchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05: the market gives FSV Mainz 05 42.0%.
- Where books disagree most — Borussia Monchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05: 16.6% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 6.2% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The early Saturday slate shows a balanced market across most matchups, with the closest contest appearing to be Hamburg against Cologne. That fixture sits at barely 4 percentage points separating the home side from the away side—well within a statistical coin flip—though the market still marginally favors Cologne at 38.9% implied versus Hamburg's 34.8%. By contrast, Monchengladbach against Mainz presents the most pronounced skew on the card, with the visitors priced at 42.0% to the hosts' 32.5%, a gap of 9.5 points that makes this the day's most one-sided proposition.
Among the three concurrent 13:30 fixtures, the bookmaker disagreement is noticeably tighter than in the later slots. Hamburg-Cologne shows a 14.4 percentage point book spread, the smallest variance across the slate, while Monchengladbach-Mainz reveals 16.6 points of spread—the largest scatter on the day. This suggests shops hold the most conflicting views on the Monchengladbach matchup, perhaps reflecting genuine uncertainty about how to price that away win, whereas the Hamburg-Cologne duel has driven closer consensus despite its narrow three-way probability distribution.
The evening's Stuttgart-Dortmund encounter sits as the most evenly weighted neutral outcome, with draws priced at 24.7%, the lowest draw probability across all five matches. Stuttgart edges ahead at 41.8% home implied, leaving Dortmund at 33.5%, a spread suggesting the market sees this primarily as a contest between Stuttgart's form and Dortmund's road performance. All five matches carry margins between 6.1% and 6.3%, indicating consistent bookmaker overround across the entire day.
Prices captured 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC. Odds move.