EPL has 5 matches on Saturday, September 19. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa | 1.98 | 3.67 | 3.58 | 47.8% / 25.8% / 26.4% |
| 14:00 | Brighton and Hove Albion vs Arsenal | 4.64 | 3.86 | 1.72 | 20.4% / 24.5% / 55.1% |
| 14:00 | Everton vs Ipswich Town | 1.77 | 3.76 | 4.39 | 53.3% / 25.1% / 21.5% |
| 14:00 | Newcastle United vs Hull City | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.88 | 62.9% / 21.0% / 16.1% |
| 16:30 | Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City | 1.69 | 3.92 | 4.78 | 56.0% / 24.2% / 19.8% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 24 books (Codere (IT), 1xBet, Winamax (FR), Betclic (FR), Unibet (FR), Winamax (DE)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa
11:30 UTC · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London · Season record: Tottenham Hotspur 0-2-2 / Aston Villa 0-1-3
The market leans Tottenham Hotspur at 47.8%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 16.6% on the widest side.
Brighton and Hove Albion vs Arsenal
14:00 UTC · American Express Stadium, Falmer · Season record: Brighton and Hove Albion 2-1-1 / Arsenal 4-0-0
The market leans Arsenal at 55.1%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 22.0% on the widest side.
Everton vs Ipswich Town
14:00 UTC · Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool · Season record: Everton 1-3-0 / Ipswich Town 2-0-2
The market leans Everton at 53.3%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 20.5% on the widest side.
Newcastle United vs Hull City
14:00 UTC · St. James' Park, Newcastle-upon-Tyne · Season record: Newcastle United 1-2-0 / Hull City 2-2-0
The market leans Newcastle United at 62.9%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 34.7% on the widest side.
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City
16:30 UTC · The City Ground, Nottingham · Season record: Nottingham Forest 1-2-1 / Coventry City 0-0-4
The market leans Nottingham Forest at 56.0%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 21.4% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa: 47.8% vs 26.4%.
- Most one-sided — Newcastle United vs Hull City: the market gives Newcastle United 62.9%.
- Where books disagree most — Newcastle United vs Hull City: 34.7% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.7% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The early kick-off between Tottenham and Aston Villa stands as the day's closest contest, with the home side priced at just under 48 per cent and the visitors at 26.4 per cent. This is the tightest three-way race on the slate—the draw sits at nearly a quarter of outcomes—and bookmakers show the widest disagreement here with a 16.6 per cent spread across operators. That scatter suggests genuine uncertainty about how this one unfolds, even among professional layers.
Newcastle versus Hull City presents the opposite picture: a heavily skewed fixture where the home team is marked at 62.9 per cent, more than three times the visiting side's 16.1 per cent. This is the day's most lopsided matchup and also shows the largest book spread at 34.7 per cent, indicating that even consensus around a strong favourite varies considerably depending which bookmaker you consult. Arsenal's 55.1 per cent chance away at Brighton and Everton's 53.3 per cent at home are the next most decisive outcomes, though both leave a quarter or more of probability for the draw.
Across the five fixtures, margin consistency is remarkably tight—all between 5.5 and 5.8 per cent—meaning bookmakers are holding similar profit targets despite vastly different match probabilities. The real variation lies in the book spread: Newcastle-Hull and Brighton-Arsenal show the most disagreement, while the Tottenham-Aston Villa early kick-off sees sharper divergence than Nottingham Forest's evening game against Coventry despite being only moderately more competitive.
Prices captured 2026-09-14 00:01 UTC. Odds move.