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MLS Saturday, September 19: 4 matches, odds and implied probabilities

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MLS has 4 matches on Saturday, September 19. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeDrawAwayImplied
23:30CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew SC2.423.572.5838.3% / 25.9% / 35.9%
23:30D.C. United vs Charlotte FC2.483.522.5237.2% / 26.3% / 36.6%
23:30San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC2.983.692.1131.1% / 25.0% / 43.9%
23:30New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC1.803.993.6351.4% / 23.2% / 25.5%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 20 books (Unibet (NL), PMU (FR), LeoVegas (SE), Unibet (SE), Coolbet, Unibet (FR)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew SC

23:30 UTC

The market can barely separate them — 38.3% against 35.9%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 20.9% on the widest side.

D.C. United vs Charlotte FC

23:30 UTC · Audi Field, Washington, District of Columbia · Season record: D.C. United 6-11-7 / Charlotte FC 11-7-7

The market can barely separate them — 37.2% against 36.6%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 19.1% on the widest side.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC

23:30 UTC

The market leans Los Angeles FC at 43.9%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 20.4% on the widest side.

New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC

23:30 UTC · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts · Season record: New England Revolution 13-4-8 / Orlando City SC 10-4-11

The market leans New England Revolution at 51.4%. Prices come from 19 books, and they differ by 21.5% on the widest side.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — D.C. United vs Charlotte FC: 37.2% vs 36.6%.
  • Most one-sided — New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC: the market gives New England Revolution 51.4%.
  • Where books disagree most — New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC: 21.5% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 8.2% across the slate.

Reading the slate

The early slate is dominated by a single standout matchup. New England Revolution against Orlando City SC shows the widest separation in the market, with the Revolution priced at 51.4% to win compared to just 25.5% for the visitors. That 25.9 percentage-point gap makes this the most lopsided fixture on the day—the implied probability spread is 21.5%, the largest we see across the four matches. By contrast, the other three games cluster tightly: Montreal versus Columbus, D.C. United versus Charlotte, and San Jose against Los Angeles FC all sit within a narrow band, with home-away gaps ranging from 19.1% to 20.4%.

The three competitive matches reveal interesting nuances in how bookmakers are pricing them. Montreal-Columbus and D.C.-Charlotte are remarkably similar, with draws implied at 25.9% and 26.3% respectively and home advantage worth roughly 2 percentage points in each case. San Jose-LAFC follows a different pattern: the home team is the clear underdog at 31.1%, while Los Angeles is favored at 43.9%. The draw probability there drops to 25.0%, suggesting bookmakers see fewer roads to a stalemate when a stronger team plays away.

Across all four fixtures, the vig is consistent—margins hover between 8.1% and 8.3%, and all but one book set contains 19 or 20 distinct price points. This uniformity in overround and market depth indicates a professionally-handled slate with standard liquidity assumptions. The real differentiator is New England's outsized home advantage, which pushes that match into genuinely asymmetric territory compared to the competitive trio alongside it.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-09-14 00:01 UTC. Odds move.

MLS Saturday, September 19: 4 matches, odds and implied probabilities

Comments (1)

  • north2973

    New England looking like heavy favorites with that 51.4% implied prob, makes sense with their record but Orlando's been shocking this season.