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Serie A Saturday, September 19: 4 matches, odds and implied probabilities

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Serie A has 4 matches on Saturday, September 19. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeDrawAwayImplied
13:00Bologna vs Torino1.893.494.0649.9% / 27.0% / 23.2%
13:00Udinese vs Cagliari2.073.213.7645.6% / 29.4% / 25.1%
16:00AS Roma vs Inter Milan2.573.382.6536.6% / 27.8% / 35.6%
18:45Venezia vs Lazio3.423.442.0927.6% / 27.4% / 45.1%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 22 books (Winamax (DE), 1xBet, Unibet (FR), Codere (IT), Winamax (FR), Betclic (FR)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

Bologna vs Torino

13:00 UTC · Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna · Season record: Bologna 0-1-3 / Torino 1-0-2

The market leans Bologna at 49.9%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 19.4% on the widest side.

Udinese vs Cagliari

13:00 UTC · Stadio Friuli, Udine · Season record: Udinese 1-1-1 / Cagliari 3-0-1

The market leans Udinese at 45.6%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 16.2% on the widest side.

AS Roma vs Inter Milan

16:00 UTC

The market can barely separate them — 36.6% against 35.6%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 16.2% on the widest side.

Venezia vs Lazio

18:45 UTC · Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venezia · Season record: Venezia 0-0-4 / Lazio 3-1-0

The market leans Lazio at 45.1%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 19.4% on the widest side.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — AS Roma vs Inter Milan: 36.6% vs 35.6%.
  • Most one-sided — Bologna vs Torino: the market gives Bologna 49.9%.
  • Where books disagree most — Bologna vs Torino: 19.4% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 6.2% across the slate.

Reading the slate

Bologna versus Torino stands as the market's strongest home backing on the slate, with the hosts priced at nearly 50 percent implied probability compared to Torino's 23 percent. The draw at 27 percent sits squarely between them. Udinese-Cagliari runs closer to conventional home advantage, with the market pricing the hosts at 45.6 percent to Cagliari's 25 percent, leaving 29.4 percent for a stalemate. Both early kickoffs show consistent margins around 6.1–6.3 percent.

The Roma-Inter Milan fixture presents the day's tightest race. Roma sits at 36.6 percent, barely ahead of Inter's 35.6 percent, with draw probability at 27.8 percent—essentially a coin flip between the two sides from the bookmaker's perspective. This near-parity contrasts sharply with the other three matches and suggests maximum uncertainty in how the market views this contest, despite the 16.2 percent book spread being lower than Bologna-Torino's.

Venezia-Lazio shows the most pronounced visitor advantage on the card, with Lazio at 45.1 percent implied win probability against the hosts' 27.6 percent. The draw probability of 27.4 percent sits nearly equal to Venezia's win chance. Across all four matches, bookmaker agreement is tight, with spreads clustering between 16.2 and 19.4 percent and margins consistently around 6 percent.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-09-14 00:01 UTC. Odds move.

Serie A Saturday, September 19: 4 matches, odds and implied probabilities

Comments (1)

  • plain_sparrow

    Roma-Inter being nearly 50-50 is wild given how much better Inter usually is, but I guess early season form changes everything.