NCAAF has 8 matches on Sunday, September 20. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | TCU Horned Frogs vs Arkansas State Red Wolves | 1.07 | 8.79 | 89.2% / 10.8% |
| 00:00 | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs UAB Blazers | 1.31 | 3.47 | 72.6% / 27.4% |
| 00:00 | Texas Longhorns vs UTSA Roadrunners | 1.01 | 16.25 | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| 02:00 | San Diego State Aztecs vs James Madison Dukes | 1.72 | 2.13 | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| 02:30 | Sacramento State Hornets vs North Dakota State Bison | 16.00 | 1.02 | 6.0% / 94.0% |
| 03:00 | San Jose State Spartans vs Fresno State Bulldogs | 3.13 | 1.36 | 30.3% / 69.7% |
| 03:00 | Oregon State Beavers vs Montana Grizzlies | 1.11 | 6.05 | 84.5% / 15.5% |
| 03:00 | UCLA Bruins vs Purdue Boilermakers | 1.13 | 5.87 | 83.8% / 16.2% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 8 books (BetOnline.ag, GTbets, MyBookie.ag, Unibet (NL), Unibet (SE), LeoVegas (SE)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
TCU Horned Frogs vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
00:00 UTC · Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth · Season record: TCU Horned Frogs 1-1 / Arkansas State Red Wolves 1-1
The market leans TCU Horned Frogs at 89.2%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 25.8% on the widest side.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs UAB Blazers
00:00 UTC · Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium, Lafayette · Season record: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 1-1 / UAB Blazers 1-1
The market leans Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at 72.6%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 10.4% on the widest side.
Texas Longhorns vs UTSA Roadrunners
00:00 UTC · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin · Season record: Texas Longhorns 2-0 / UTSA Roadrunners 2-0
The market leans Texas Longhorns at 94.1%. Prices come from 2 books, and they differ by 40.7% on the widest side.
San Diego State Aztecs vs James Madison Dukes
02:00 UTC · Martin Stadium, Pullman · Season record: San Diego State Aztecs 0-2 / James Madison Dukes 0-2
The market leans San Diego State Aztecs at 55.3%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 4.4% on the widest side.
Sacramento State Hornets vs North Dakota State Bison
02:30 UTC · Ohio Stadium, Columbus · Season record: Sacramento State Hornets 1-1 / North Dakota State Bison 1-1
The market leans North Dakota State Bison at 94.0%. Prices come from 2 books, and they differ by 46.2% on the widest side.
San Jose State Spartans vs Fresno State Bulldogs
03:00 UTC · Ohio Stadium, Columbus · Season record: San Jose State Spartans 1-1 / Fresno State Bulldogs 1-1
The market leans Fresno State Bulldogs at 69.7%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 4.9% on the widest side.
Oregon State Beavers vs Montana Grizzlies
03:00 UTC · Reser Stadium, Corvallis · Season record: Oregon State Beavers 0-2 / Montana Grizzlies 3-0
The market leans Oregon State Beavers at 84.5%. Prices come from 1 book.
UCLA Bruins vs Purdue Boilermakers
03:00 UTC · Rose Bowl, Pasadena · Season record: UCLA Bruins 2-0 / Purdue Boilermakers 1-1
The market leans UCLA Bruins at 83.8%. Prices come from 8 books, and they differ by 9.0% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — San Diego State Aztecs vs James Madison Dukes: 55.3% vs 44.7%.
- Most one-sided — Texas Longhorns vs UTSA Roadrunners: the market gives Texas Longhorns 94.1%.
- Where books disagree most — Sacramento State Hornets vs North Dakota State Bison: 46.2% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.3% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The slate is bookended by two clear mismatches. Texas hosts UTSA with the market pricing the Longhorns at 94.1%, the highest win probability on the card, while Sacramento State faces North Dakota State at just 6.0% implied likelihood—a near mirror image. Both matches feature sharp disagreement across the market, with book spreads of 40.7% and 46.2% respectively, though only two shops carry lines on these. The contrast suggests that where fewer sportsbooks operate, larger gaps between their odds emerge, and these two fixtures sit at the extreme ends of the competitive spectrum.
In the middle ground, San Diego State versus James Madison presents the closest contest from a market perspective: the Aztecs sit at 55.3% home implied probability with a razor-thin 4.4% spread across eight books. This near-consensus reflects a genuine toss-up, with both teams priced almost evenly. San Jose State at home to Fresno State tells a different story—the market clearly favors the visiting Bulldogs at 69.7% despite the Spartans having the field advantage, suggesting the away team is seen as substantially stronger.
Louisiana versus UAB and Oregon State against Montana occupy similar territory in terms of home team confidence, both priced between 72.6% and 84.5%, but Oregon State's single-book line shows a 0.0% spread while Louisiana draws eight sportsbooks with a 10.4% spread. This variation hints at sharper disagreement on the Ragin Cajuns game despite the higher overall confidence in their victory.
Prices captured 2026-09-15 00:00 UTC. Odds move.