Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds favorite as he returns from a devastating ACL tear suffered at the end of the 2025-26 campaign.
However, an intriguing new candidate is climbing up the board: Aaron Donald, who came out of retirement to join the Los Angeles Rams on a one-year contract worth up to $30 million.
Let's look at the latest NFL odds as we build toward Week 1.
- Key Takeaways:
- Can Mahomes recapture his elite form?
- Murray gets a fresh start
- Donald seeks Hollywood sequel
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
| Player Name | Probability |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 36% |
| Kyler Murray | 15% |
| Malik Nabers | 9% |
| Aaron Donald | 8% |
| Daniel Jones | 8% |
| Travis Hunter | 5% |
| Micah Parsons | 4% |
| Tucker Kraft | 4% |
| Fred Warner | 4% |
| George Kittle | 4% |
Odds as of 9-3. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year favorites
Patrick Mahomes is returning from a torn ACL and LCL after his first losing season as an NFL starter. The two-time MVP is expected to be ready for Week 1 in Denver, and a reunion with former OC Eric Bieniemy, along with the addition of Kenneth Walker III to the backfield, should help take some of the load off the quarterback.
While this is quite reminiscent of Tom Brady's return from an ACL & MCL tear in 2009, I’m passing on Mahomes at his current 36% implied probability. The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since Kareem Hunt in 2017, and adding Walker could help establish a more balanced rushing attack in 2026.
The most intriguing challenger is Kyler Murray, who gets a fresh start with the Minnesota Vikings after playing just five games in 2025. He’ll be playing under QB whisperer Kevin O’Connell, who helped completely transform Sam Darnold during his time with the Vikings.
If O’Connell can help Murray rediscover that level of play, the former No. 1 overall pick should emerge as Mahomes’ biggest challenger.
Players to watch
Aaron Donald, Los Angeles Rams
Three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald has officially come out of retirement to rejoin the Los Angeles Rams, the current Super Bowl odds favorites. He's currently given an 8% probability at Kalshi to win the award, but should he even be eligible?
The CPOY guidelines were recently codified following Joe Flacco's "Comeback from Sucking" in 2023-24.
"The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season."
A voluntary retirement by Donald certainly wouldn't fit those criteria, but it might not stop voters from casting their ballots for No. 99 anyway. Our Brad Senkiw looked at how sportsbooks are handling the confusion surrounding Donald's Comeback Player of the Year eligibility.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year futures predictions
| Pick | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 15% | Aug. 1 | 2.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1% | Aug. 1 | 0.25 |
Popular NFL futures markets
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NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting trends
• Over the last eight years, the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award has gone to a quarterback seven times.
• From 2014 to 2018, every Comeback Player of the Year had suffered a season-ending injury during the previous year, and Alex Smith won in 2020 after recovering from a devastating leg injury that almost required amputation.
• Joe Burrow joins Chad Pennington (2006 and 2008) as the only player to win this award twice.
Previous NFL Comeback Player of the Year award winners
Here's a look at the recent award history (preseason favorite and winner odds courtesy of Sports Odds History):
| Year | NFL CPOY winner | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Christian McCaffrey | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2025 | Joe Burrow |  Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2024 | Joe Flacco |  Cleveland Browns |
| 2023 | Geno Smith |  Seattle Seahawks |
| 2022 | Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2021 | Alex Smith |  Washington Commanders |
| 2020 | Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans |
| 2019 | Andrew Luck |  Indianapolis Colts |
| 2018 | Keenan Allen |  Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2017 | Jordy Nelson |  Green Bay Packers |