The appetizer plates that were Week 0 have been cleared, and now it's time for the main feast to begin.
Week 1 of the college football season is finally upon us, and our college football picks focus on games where the point spreads offer value on the prediction markets.
Here are my top three college football Over/Under picks for Week 1 of the college football season.
College football Over/Under picks for Week 1
| Matchup | |
|---|---|
| Louisville vs Mississippi | o55.5 |
| SMU vs Florida State | o52.5 |
Idaho State vs  Utah State |
o61.5 |
Expert Week 1 CFB Over/Under picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Louisville vs Mississippi: Over 55.5
Jeff Brohm enters his third season as the Louisville Cardinals head coach with high expectations, as does running back Isaac Brown. He missed multiple games last season, but his game-breaking speed will be a problem for a Mississippi Rebels defense that ranked in the bottom half nationally in explosive run rate against and 87th in EPA/rush.
The Rebels return both QB Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy to an offense that ranked 10th in EPA/pass and eighth in available yards gained. Louisville's defense was very good last season, but they didn't see an offense in the ACC that compares to what they'll see in this game.
With this many explosive playmakers, I'll take the Over at anything below 50%.
SMU vs Florida State: Over 52.5
The Florida State Seminoles allowed 17 points to New Mexico State in Week 0, but it could've been more had the Aggies not dropped a touchdown pass. The Noles also gave up a 65% success rate on third down and 0.21 EPA/dropback, concerning numbers given the opponent.
Now they face a dangerous SMU Mustangs attack led by QB Kevin Jennings, and the addition of running back Kendrick Raphael from Cal makes them even stronger. The Noles ranked in the 20th percentile last season in explosive pass rate against, and Jennings ranked in the 84th percentile in yards per dropback.
The Noles have a strong running game that will generate enough points to push this one into the high-50s.
Idaho State vs Utah State: Under 61.5
Kalshi probability: 53%
Tied for the highest total of Week 1, I like the Under given the motivation for the Utah State Aggies. This is an offense with a new offensive coordinator, new quarterback, and a running game they're going to rely on heavily.
Next week's opponent is Washington, meaning it's unlikely the coaching staff will want to show too much of their hand. They're also likely to get the lead and sit on it, with the starters watching from the sidelines.
If that holds, I don't see their FCS opponents Idaho State Bengals scoring nearly enough to push this total north of 60 points.
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