I got one more crack this week before the big long weekend, and I'm not taking losing vibes into the end of the summer. Home run and MLB player props are taking notice today.
I'll grab Oneil Cruz in the opener and Alex Bregman to continue his torrid stretch against the Brewers. And just because I didn't cash Mickey Gasper yesterday doesn't mean I'll avoid him today in a better matchup.
These are my favorite MLB home run props for Thursday, Sept. 3.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz | 21% |
| Alex Bregman | 15% |
| Mickey Gasper | 16% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 153.85x |
Home run prediction: Oneil Cruz (21%)
Give me one Cruz missile to open the Thursday slate. The form is there with Oneil Cruz, who is hitting over .300 and slugging over .500 across the last two weeks with a couple of taters. His left-handed swing plays very well today against a Giants team dealing with a depleted rotation.
The Giants currently have four starters on the 60-day injured list, plus another seven relievers on the shelf. That means Blade Tidwell gets another turn after serving up three home runs in his last outing. Lefties are hitting more than 100 points better against him and doing their damage deep.
It's a warm one at PNC today, with 9-mph winds blowing out. I want Cruz in this spot at 23% or better. The lefty bats have the edge in this matchup.
- Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, NBC Sports Bay Area
Home run prediction: Alex Bregman (15%)
Wrigley Field is one of three parks averaging three or more dingers per game this year. This series has seen more home runs than I can count on two hands, and despite some great numbers, Logan Henderson is not a bad name to fade on a small Thursday slate.
Since the All-Star break, 32% of Henderson's hits allowed have gone yard, and he has allowed nine homers across 48 innings. He's been a very lucky pitcher with a .178 BABIP in the second half while stranding 100% of his runners, per FanGraphs. His lefty-righty splits are pretty even, which puts Alex Bregman and his hot bat on the card at 18.2% or better.
Bregman is on a mission, and that mission took Jacob Misiorowski deep in his last outing. He has four homers in this set alone and has launched eight home runs over his last four series (12 games). Many Cubs hitters are projected as +EV at Covers.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FOX
Home run prediction: Mickey Gasper (16%)
Brandon Young has been one of the luckier pitchers in the second half of the MLB season. His HR/FB rate is the 30th-worst among all MLB starters and the worst on today's slate. His xERA is more than a point higher than his actual ERA, and the warmer temperatures and winds blowing out to right aren't going to help him.
Mickey Gasper is a switch-hitter who has been crushing right-handed pitching. It's been a small sample, but nobody has been a better power hitter than Gasper over the last two weeks, with a .964 SLG. He had an extra-base hit in each of the three games vs. the Mariners and homered in two.
I bet on him yesterday to no avail, but I'll happily go back to him in a better matchup that I'd play to 4.5x.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FOX
- HR picks: 35-172, -12.12 units
Best home run combo for September 3
| Oneil Cruz | Trade Now 153.85x |
| Alex Bregman | |
| Mickey Gasper |
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