Bundesliga has 1 match on Friday, September 18. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:30 | Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin | 1.09 | 10.97 | 19.63 | 86.5% / 8.6% / 4.8% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 22 books (Winamax (DE), Unibet (FR), Winamax (FR), 1xBet, Coolbet, Tipico). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin
18:30 UTC · Allianz Arena, München · Season record: Bayern Munich 1-1-0 / Union Berlin 0-1-2
The market leans Bayern Munich at 86.5%. Prices come from 22 books, and they differ by 116.0% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin: 86.5% vs 4.8%.
- Most one-sided — Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin: the market gives Bayern Munich 86.5%.
- Where books disagree most — Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin: 116.0% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.6% across the slate.
Reading the slate
Bayern Munich are priced as overwhelming favorites against Union Berlin, with the market assigning them an 86.5% chance of victory. This is one of the most lopsided matchups the market can express—the draw probability sits at just 8.6%, and Union Berlin's away win odds imply only a 4.8% chance. The 5.6% book margin across 22 different sportsbooks suggests this pricing is stable and well-established across the market, with little disagreement on the fundamental imbalance.
The spread of 116% across the three outcomes shows how severely the market weights Bayern's superiority in this fixture. For context, when one team is priced this heavily, a draw becomes almost twice as likely as an away victory, and the home win probability dwarfs both alternatives combined. The consistency across 22 books indicates this isn't a case of outlier pricing—bookmakers have settled on a clear consensus that Bayern are the dominant force in this matchup.
Prices captured 2026-09-13 00:00 UTC. Odds move.