J League has 6 matches on Saturday, September 12. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | Mito HollyHock vs Kawasaki Frontale | 3.00 | 3.62 | 2.08 | 30.6% / 25.3% / 44.1% |
| 09:30 | Shimizu S Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka | 2.79 | 3.13 | 2.43 | 32.9% / 29.3% / 37.8% |
| 10:00 | Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC vs Cerezo Osaka | 1.53 | 4.24 | 5.01 | 60.0% / 21.6% / 18.3% |
| 10:00 | FC Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F Marinos | 1.70 | 3.72 | 4.32 | 54.1% / 24.7% / 21.2% |
| 10:00 | Gamba Osaka vs FC Tokyo | 3.62 | 3.70 | 1.84 | 25.3% / 24.8% / 49.9% |
| 10:00 | V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus | 3.11 | 3.53 | 2.07 | 29.5% / 26.0% / 44.5% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 14 books (BetOnline.ag, Coolbet, Unibet (FR), Pinnacle, Nordic Bet, Betsson). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Mito HollyHock vs Kawasaki Frontale
09:00 UTC · Kasamatsu Stadium · Season record: Mito HollyHock 2-3-1 / Kawasaki Frontale 2-3-1
The market leans Kawasaki Frontale at 44.1%. Prices come from 12 books, and they differ by 13.2% on the widest side.
Shimizu S Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka
09:30 UTC · IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shimzu · Season record: Shimizu S Pulse 1-1-4 / Avispa Fukuoka 1-1-4
The market can barely separate them — 32.9% against 37.8%. Prices come from 14 books, and they differ by 11.0% on the widest side.
Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC vs Cerezo Osaka
10:00 UTC · Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima · Season record: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC 3-2-1 / Cerezo Osaka 3-1-2
The market leans Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC at 60.0%. Prices come from 12 books, and they differ by 19.6% on the widest side.
FC Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F Marinos
10:00 UTC · Japan National Stadium, Tokyo · Season record: FC Machida Zelvia 5-1-0 / Yokohama F Marinos 3-1-2
The market leans FC Machida Zelvia at 54.1%. Prices come from 12 books, and they differ by 16.7% on the widest side.
Gamba Osaka vs FC Tokyo
10:00 UTC · Suita City Football Stadium, Osaka · Season record: Gamba Osaka 1-3-2 / FC Tokyo 3-2-1
The market leans FC Tokyo at 49.9%. Prices come from 12 books, and they differ by 13.2% on the widest side.
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus
10:00 UTC · PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki · Season record: V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1-4 / Nagoya Grampus 2-0-4
The market leans Nagoya Grampus at 44.5%. Prices come from 14 books, and they differ by 12.1% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Shimizu S Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka: 32.9% vs 37.8%.
- Most one-sided — Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC vs Cerezo Osaka: the market gives Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC 60.0%.
- Where books disagree most — Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC vs Cerezo Osaka: 19.6% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 9.0% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The market sees a fairly even slate with most matches carrying similar overround margins between 8.9% and 9.1%, but the conviction levels vary sharply. Hiroshima versus Cerezo Osaka stands out as the day's most decisive contest, with the home side priced at 60% to win—a 19.6-point book spread reflecting strong bookmaker agreement that this is a clear favourite situation. By contrast, Mito HollyHock against Kawasaki Frontale and V-Varen Nagasaki against Nagoya Grampus are the closest calls on paper, with away sides given narrow edges of 44.1% and 44.5% respectively, yet still commanding roughly 14 percentage points over their hosts.
The middle tier of matches shows more dispersed views. Gamba Osaka versus FC Tokyo presents the day's starkest asymmetry, with FC Tokyo priced at nearly 50% despite playing away, compared to just 25.3% for the home side—a 13.2-point spread despite 12 books contributing. Machida Zelvia versus Yokohama F Marinos leans home at 54.1%, while Shimizu S Pulse against Avispa Fukuoka is genuinely competitive at 32.9% home, 29.3% draw, and 37.8% away, suggesting the market sees little separation between these sides.
Across the 14-book fixtures, the spreads remain tight even where more consensus exists, indicating bookmakers are aligned on these valuations. The morning's opening times mean early movers will have first chance at any line movements, though the consistency of margins across the slate suggests this is a relatively settled market.
Prices captured 2026-09-07 02:58 UTC. Odds move.