EPL has 4 matches on Sunday, September 20. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Bournemouth vs Liverpool | 3.14 | 3.79 | 2.12 | 30.2% / 25.1% / 44.7% |
| 13:00 | Leeds United vs Crystal Palace | 1.80 | 3.76 | 4.32 | 52.7% / 25.3% / 22.0% |
| 13:00 | Manchester City vs Sunderland | 1.29 | 5.65 | 9.71 | 73.4% / 16.8% / 9.8% |
| 15:30 | Fulham vs Manchester United | 3.46 | 3.77 | 2.01 | 27.5% / 25.2% / 47.3% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 24 books (1xBet, MyBookie.ag, Unibet (FR), Winamax (FR), Codere (IT), Winamax (DE)). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
13:00 UTC · Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth · Season record: Bournemouth 0-3-1 / Liverpool 1-3-0
The market leans Liverpool at 44.7%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 9.7% on the widest side.
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace
13:00 UTC · Elland Road, Leeds · Season record: Leeds United 2-2-0 / Crystal Palace 1-0-3
The market leans Leeds United at 52.7%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 16.5% on the widest side.
Manchester City vs Sunderland
13:00 UTC · Etihad Stadium, Manchester · Season record: Manchester City 4-0-0 / Sunderland 1-1-2
The market leans Manchester City at 73.4%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 29.4% on the widest side.
Fulham vs Manchester United
15:30 UTC · Craven Cottage, London · Season record: Fulham 0-1-3 / Manchester United 1-1-2
The market leans Manchester United at 47.3%. Prices come from 24 books, and they differ by 14.1% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Bournemouth vs Liverpool: 30.2% vs 44.7%.
- Most one-sided — Manchester City vs Sunderland: the market gives Manchester City 73.4%.
- Where books disagree most — Manchester City vs Sunderland: 29.4% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 5.3% across the slate.
Reading the slate
The early Sunday slate features one match the market views as genuinely competitive and three where the favorite carries substantial conviction. Bournemouth versus Liverpool is effectively a toss-up, with Liverpool marginally favored at 44.7% to win but the home side only 13 percentage points behind. The draw at 25.1% sits right in the middle, making this the closest three-way contest on the card. Fulham versus Manchester United follows a similar pattern, though skewed further toward the away side—Manchester United's 47.3% win probability represents only a modest edge, and the home side at 27.5% remains very much alive.
In sharp contrast, Manchester City against Sunderland belongs to an entirely different category. The market prices City to win with 73.4% probability, a reflection of the 29.4 percentage point gap between the tightest and loosest bookmaker odds on that match. This is the day's most one-sided fixture. Leeds United versus Crystal Palace sits between these extremes; Leeds are clear favorites at 52.7%, but that leaves Palace with a genuine 22.0% chance, and the draw at 25.3% remains plausible.
All four matches carry a uniform 5.3% margin, indicating consistent bookmaker efficiency across the slate. The real variation lies in how much disagreement exists among the 24 sportsbooks on each fixture. The Manchester City match shows the widest divergence, while Leeds-Palace and Fulham-Manchester United show moderate spread, suggesting more consensus in those markets.
Prices captured 2026-09-15 00:01 UTC. Odds move.