Today's baseball slate is a short one, but our MLB expert picks are ready to dive in anyway.
One analyst is bullish on the Baltimore Orioles to beat the Boston Red Sox straight up, while another likes both offenses to light up the scoreboard on Thursday, Sept. 3.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: ATH/SEA u7.5 |
56% |
 Jon Metler: BAL ML |
47% |
 Neil Parker: BOS/BAL o8.5 |
50% |
 Joe Osborne: STL/LAD o7.5 |
53% |
| Dustin Saracini: TOR ML | 50% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Trade on MLB at Polymarket!
*Eligible locations only
Josh Inglis' expert pick: A's at Mariners Under 7.5
Price: 56¢ at Polymarket
This is about as tough a schedule spot as you can get for the Seattle Mariners offense today.
The Mariners were just in Boston yesterday and now open a weekend set with the Athletics at home. Returning home after a two-series East Coast trip with no day off works against the home side, and it's just enough to slow down an average offense coming off its best three-game offensive output.
Seattle gets Jack Perkins, who has allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts, while the Mariners should have a favorable matchup against the A's and their league-worst road scoring offense.
Twenty-two-year-old first-rounder Kade Anderson starts for Seattle and has struck out 135 batters in 93 minor-league innings this year. Neither bullpen has restrictions today, and the projections give this a 56% fair probability.
The schedule spot and the worst road offense are pushing this total down to a flat 7.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC Sports California, Mariners.TV
Jon Metler's expert pick: Orioles moneyline
Price: 47¢ at Polymarket
The biggest reason I like the Baltimore Orioles in this matchup is the probability. The Orioles are trading at 47% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 51% favorite.
We typically look to exploit edges of just 2-3%, so a 4% difference is certainly worth our attention. The Boston Red Sox will send left-hander Jake Bennett to the mound. While he's dominated left-handed hitters this season, he has been more vulnerable against right-handed bats.
That sets up well for an Orioles lineup with plenty of right-handed power from spots two through six, including Luis Robert Jr., whom Baltimore acquired on Aug. 31.
Small details can create an edge in these markets, and Robert's addition is particularly important here. He has historically hit left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching, and his presence gives Baltimore another right-handed bat that profiles well against Bennett.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- How to watch: FOX
Neil Parker's expert pick: Red Sox at Orioles Over 8.5
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
The Red Sox and Orioles rank fourth and fifth in xwOBA over the past 30 days while averaging 5.3 and 4.6 runs per game, respectively, and Camden Yards will have ideal hitting conditions tonight.
Additionally, Baltimore righty Brandon Young’s underlying 4.36 xERA and 4.47 xFIP are way above his 3.38 ERA, and the Orioles, as my colleague Jon Metler alluded to, have multiple impact right-handed hitters to counter Bennett.
Neil Parker breaks the matchup down further in his Red Sox vs. Orioles predictions.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- How to watch: FOX
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Cardinals at Dodgers Over 7.5
Price: 53¢ at Polymarket
The Over is the play in Los Angeles, with the St. Louis Cardinals on a 11-2 Over tear.
Tarik Skubal has been solid for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he hasn’t reached the unhittable level he displayed in Detroit, and the Cardinals rank fourth in OPS against left-handed pitching over the past month.
The bigger mismatch comes on the other side. Rookie Quinn Mathews brings a 5.03 ERA and 1.58 WHIP into just his fifth career start against a dangerous Dodgers lineup desperate to break out of a 2-6 slide.
With St. Louis’ bullpen posting a brutal 6.47 ERA over the past two weeks and winds blowing eight mph straight to center, Over 7.5 has plenty of paths to come through.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Cardinals.TV, SportsNet LA
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline
Price: 50¢ at Polymarket
If the Toronto Blue Jays want to build momentum after their 11-0 win last night, Jose Soriano is the right man to do it.
Across 46 plate appearances (we love a good sample size), the Cleveland Guardians own just a .213 xBA and .332 xSLG against the righty, which includes limiting Steven Kwan to a .159 xBA.
His elite ground-ball rate is perfect for a contact-first team like Cleveland and should allow him to work deep into the ballgame. On the other side, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might've finally woken up last night after going 3-for-4 with five RBI and a homer. He won't be slowing down today, either, rocking a .744 xSLG against Tanner Bibee.
All the numbers point toward the Jays in a must-win game here. I'd play this up to 55 cents at Polymarket.
Dustin Saracini has more analysis for this game in his Blue Jays vs. Guardians predictions.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Sportsnet, Guardians.TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| TEX ML | 47% |
| Read analysis in our Rays vs. Rangers predictions | |
| CHW/HOU o8.5 | 49% |
| Read analysis in our White Sox vs. Astros predictions | |
| MIL ML | 51% |
| Read analysis in our Brewers vs. Cubs predictions | |