Serie A has 1 match on Friday, September 18. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.
Fixtures and odds
| UTC | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:45 | Monza vs Sassuolo | 2.81 | 3.34 | 2.45 | 33.5% / 28.2% / 38.3% |
Odds are decimal, averaged across 20 books (Winamax (FR), Winamax (DE), Unibet (FR), Betclic (FR), Pinnacle, 1xBet). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.
Match by match
Monza vs Sassuolo
18:45 UTC · U-Power Stadium, Monza · Season record: Monza 0-1-2 / Sassuolo 1-1-1
The market can barely separate them — 33.5% against 38.3%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 20.0% on the widest side.
What the market is saying
- Closest on paper — Monza vs Sassuolo: 33.5% vs 38.3%.
- Most one-sided — Monza vs Sassuolo: the market gives Sassuolo 38.3%.
- Where books disagree most — Monza vs Sassuolo: 20.0% between the best and worst price.
- Average bookmaker margin — 6.4% across the slate.
Reading the slate
Monza versus Sassuolo presents one of the tighter matchups on the slate, with the market pricing this nearly as a coin flip. Sassuolo enters as slight favorites at 38.3% implied probability, but the gap is narrow enough that Monza's 33.5% chance and the draw at 28.2% remain meaningful outcomes. The 6.4% margin between most and least likely result reflects genuine uncertainty about how this contest will unfold.
What's notable is the 20-point spread across the 20 bookmakers captured here, suggesting real disagreement on where the true probabilities lie. Some books see this as a closer-run thing than others, which indicates limited consensus on team strength or form in this pairing. When books diverge this widely on a single match, it signals that professional opinion itself is split on the likely outcome.
The combined probability of a Monza win or draw sits at 61.7%, while an away victory accounts for the remaining 38.3%. The overround of 6.4% is moderate for a fixture of this competitive balance, leaving reasonable room between any two bookmakers' assessments of the respective chances.
Prices captured 2026-09-13 00:01 UTC. Odds move.