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NFL Sunday, September 20: 13 matches, odds and implied probabilities

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NFL has 13 matches on Sunday, September 20. Below is the full slate with bookmaker prices and the probabilities those prices imply once the margin is removed.

Fixtures and odds

UTCMatchHomeAwayImplied
17:00Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers2.001.8147.5% / 52.5%
17:00Baltimore Ravens vs New Orleans Saints1.234.2377.5% / 22.5%
17:00Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings1.392.9668.0% / 32.0%
17:00Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals1.622.3058.6% / 41.4%
17:00Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cleveland Browns1.224.2977.8% / 22.2%
17:00New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers2.661.4835.8% / 64.2%
17:00New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers1.412.8967.2% / 32.8%
17:00Tennessee Titans vs Philadelphia Eagles3.731.2825.5% / 74.5%
20:05Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars1.672.1956.8% / 43.2%
20:05Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders1.303.5573.3% / 26.7%
20:25Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks2.791.4434.0% / 66.0%
20:25Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders1.492.6363.9% / 36.1%
20:25San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins1.107.2086.8% / 13.2%

Odds are decimal, averaged across 20 books (Betsson, Nordic Bet, MyBookie.ag, Betclic (FR), William Hill, GTbets). "Implied" strips the bookmaker margin so the numbers add up to 100%.

Match by match

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers

17:00 UTC · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · Season record: Atlanta Falcons 0-1 / Carolina Panthers 0-1

The market can barely separate them — 47.5% against 52.5%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 17.3% on the widest side.

Baltimore Ravens vs New Orleans Saints

17:00 UTC · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore · Season record: Baltimore Ravens 1-0 / New Orleans Saints 0-1

The market leans Baltimore Ravens at 77.5%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 22.7% on the widest side.

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

17:00 UTC · Soldier Field, Chicago · Season record: Chicago Bears 1-0 / Minnesota Vikings 1-0

The market leans Chicago Bears at 68.0%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 16.1% on the widest side.

Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals

17:00 UTC · Reliant Stadium, Houston · Season record: Houston Texans 0-1 / Cincinnati Bengals 1-0

The market leans Houston Texans at 58.6%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 24.4% on the widest side.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cleveland Browns

17:00 UTC · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa · Season record: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-1 / Cleveland Browns 0-1

The market leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 77.8%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 25.3% on the widest side.

New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers

17:00 UTC · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford · Season record: New York Jets 1-0 / Green Bay Packers 0-1

The market leans Green Bay Packers at 64.2%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 18.8% on the widest side.

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

17:00 UTC · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough · Season record: New England Patriots 0-1 / Pittsburgh Steelers 1-0

The market leans New England Patriots at 67.2%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 18.8% on the widest side.

Tennessee Titans vs Philadelphia Eagles

17:00 UTC · Nissan Stadium, Nashville · Season record: Tennessee Titans 0-1 / Philadelphia Eagles 1-0

The market leans Philadelphia Eagles at 74.5%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 21.2% on the widest side.

Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars

20:05 UTC · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver · Season record: Denver Broncos 0-0 / Jacksonville Jaguars 1-0

The market leans Denver Broncos at 56.8%. Prices come from 18 books, and they differ by 13.2% on the widest side.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

20:05 UTC · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood · Season record: Los Angeles Chargers 0-1 / Las Vegas Raiders 1-0

The market leans Los Angeles Chargers at 73.3%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 15.2% on the widest side.

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

20:25 UTC · State Farm Stadium, Glendale · Season record: Arizona Cardinals 1-0 / Seattle Seahawks 1-0

The market leans Seattle Seahawks at 66.0%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 14.6% on the widest side.

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

20:25 UTC · AT&T Stadium, Arlington · Season record: Dallas Cowboys 0-1 / Washington Commanders 0-1

The market leans Dallas Cowboys at 63.9%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 23.3% on the widest side.

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

20:25 UTC · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara · Season record: San Francisco 49ers 1-0 / Miami Dolphins 0-1

The market leans San Francisco 49ers at 86.8%. Prices come from 20 books, and they differ by 46.1% on the widest side.

What the market is saying

  • Closest on paper — Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers: 47.5% vs 52.5%.
  • Most one-sided — San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins: the market gives San Francisco 49ers 86.8%.
  • Where books disagree most — San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins: 46.1% between the best and worst price.
  • Average bookmaker margin — 5.3% across the slate.

Reading the slate

The Sunday slate features a clear hierarchy of certainty, with San Francisco the market's most confident pick at 86.8% implied probability, followed by Tampa Bay and Baltimore both around 77–78%. These three matches represent the widest gaps between home and away chances. At the other end, Tennessee at Philadelphia sits furthest in the away team's favour at 74.5%, while Atlanta-Carolina is the closest contest across all thirteen fixtures with the Panthers favoured by just 5 percentage points. Across the entire slate, margin variance is tight—all matches fall between 5.1% and 5.6%—suggesting the market sees this as a relatively balanced week despite those standout confident outcomes.

The largest discrepancies between bookmakers appear in San Francisco's overwhelming favourite status, where the book spread reaches 46.1 percentage points, and Houston-Cincinnati at 24.4%. Tampa Bay and Houston both show wider-than-average disagreement among the 20 books covering them, indicating genuine uncertainty within the market despite the headline favourite pricing. By contrast, Denver-Jacksonville shows the tightest consensus at just 13.2 book spread, followed by Arizona-Seattle at 14.6%, suggesting sportsbooks are more aligned on those matchups even if the home-away split suggests competitive contests.

The 17:00 UTC window clusters nine matches, creating natural competition for attention and action, while the two later slots offer separation. Denver-Jacksonville at 20:05 and the evening 20:25 block featuring Arizona, Dallas, and San Francisco all carry different implied balances. The Sunday slate as a whole leans toward favourites—seven of thirteen matches price the home team above 60%—but the near-parity in Atlanta-Carolina and New York-Green Bay provides structural contrast to the heavily one-sided contests.

More fixtures and odds

Prices captured 2026-09-15 00:00 UTC. Odds move.

NFL Sunday, September 20: 13 matches, odds and implied probabilities

コメント (1)

  • copper_compass

    Ravens looking like a lock at 77.5% vs those Saints, that's a huge gap for divisional play.