SAS Rogue Heroes star, Jack Barton, is the shock new favorite to become the next James Bond. He heads a six-man shortlist of actors who are believed to be on a "final" shortlist, reported over the weekend.
Navigating the Next James Bond odds in the prediction markets is like performing stunts from Casino Royale. As James Bond casting updates continue to swirl, traders are getting their tuxedos in a twist trying to second-guess the producers.
Prices change on the prediction sites every time a young Brit actor gets featured in the trades with a Hollywood actress in tow. But with a widely-reported shortlist narrowing the field, it should be easier to pick a final 007.
̸/̸̅̅ ̆̅ ̅̅ ̅̅ License to Kill: Next 007 Actor Odds
It has been nearly five years since Daniel Craig sipped his final Martini in No Time To Die, and the tuxedo remains unclaimed. Finally, the first hopefuls will be put to the test.
The market on the next actor cast as James Bond doesn't resolve for a few years. However, we are tracking the live odds on Kalshi and breaking down where the smart money is going.
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Key Takeaways
- Six actors are on the 007 shortlist: The list includes Jack Barton, Callum Turner, Jacob Elordi, Paul Mescal, and Harris Dickinson.
- Jack Barton is the favorite - just: the relative unknown is a 25% chance, pulling ahead of Jack Lowden and early long-term shot, Callum Turner.
- Jack Lowden lingering: Podcaster Richard Osman said last month that Jack Lowden was being "strongly considered" for the role. That buzz sent prices soaring, but it appears to play out.
- This market is seriously volatile: On Kalshi, prices are swinging around. Just worry about selling your event contracts if you spot a price spike in the coming months.
🍸Shaken & Stirred: The 007 Shortlist
Jack Barton | 'Yes' 26¢ | 25% chance
Barton is unknown in the U.S. but is known to U.K. audiences as part of the cast of the BBC's SAS: Rogue Heroes alongside Jack O'Connell. He's also known to younger audiences in Netflix's Heartstopper.
According to media reports, Barton will screen-test for 007 in September after passing an earlier audition.
Now, that doesn't mean Barton has a locked-on chance. However, it does mean his price is artifically high as traders look to position themselves. Plus, the "shortlist" buzz means we think he is in with a shot.
Callum Turner | 'Yes' 25¢ | 24% chance
Callum Turner has consistently been the front-runner in the Next James Bond market ever since buzz for near-rival Aaron Taylor-Johnson cooled.
However, the 007 prediction market has evened out a little, with Turner being slowly caught by Jacob Elordi, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, and now Jacks Lowden and Barton.
Turner’s price reached the dizzy heights of 67% last December, plus he’s had some A-list endorsements in the shape of George Clooney.
“He’s the perfect guy to do it,” said Clooney, who directed Turner in his sports movie, The Boys in the Boat, last year. “He’s tall, handsome, and charming. And British!”
Turner's turn in Masters of the Air proved he has the acting clout to carry a major production. Plus, with fiancée Dua Lipa, he has proved he can handle the celebrity spotlight.
Jack Lowden | 'Yes' 24¢ | 25% chance
Sometimes, all it needs is a little push from a prominent entertainment podcaster. And that's just what Jack Lowden received when The co-host of The Rest is Entertainment, Richard Osman, suggested the Scottish actor was being "strongly considered".
Lowden is the right age for Bond (he's 36), has the acting kahunas, and the rugged looks. His acting credentials stretch from Dunkirk to Slow Horses, and he will appear in a new Netflix adaptation of Pride & Prejudice in the fall.
If cast, Lowden would become the first Scottish Bond since Sean Connery. That may be the kind of legacy Amazon MGM may want to tap into.
Jack O'Connell | 'Yes' 12¢ | 13% chance
OK, Jack O'Connell isn't on the shortlist, but could he surprise a few traders?
O'Connell has been bubbling around the teens on Kalshi for a while. There's no doubt that O'Connell is one of the biggest UK stars right now. He starred in two big horror hits in quick succession: 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple and the excellent Sinners.
O'Connell certainly has the screen presence and the menacing look. Perhaps a future Bond chance?
Jacob Elordi | 'Yes' 9¢ | 8% chance
Jacob Elordi represents one of the most volatile Bond event contracts. No slipups, 007...
According to The Rest is Entertainment host, Marina Hyde, the Saltburn and Wuthering Heights heartthrob is in "pole position" for the role of 007.
In a recent viral podcast episode, Hyde highlighted Elordi's "Gen-Z A-list" credentials. What about a first Millennial Bond (the franchise has never had one)? That could be for Amazon's inevitable TV spin-off.
However, a few months is a long time in predicting the next James Bond actor. The Australian’s price has gone the way of Goldfinger and been sucked out of the window of Bond opportunity.
Elordi was as high as 40¢ earlier this year before slumping. You could have sold at 40¢ if you didn’t think a non-British actor would get the part.
Plus, Elordi breaks the golden rule of a 007 actor: he’s just too famous right now – even if his Chanel ad blatantly pushes his Bond credentials.
Harris Dickinson | 'Yes' 8¢ | 7% chance
The King's Man star has proved he has the action nous to be Bond. And those earlier reports of disinterest in the project have subsided. Dickinson is also 28, the age 007 producers are targeting with their casting choice.
Bizarrely, Dickinson has been overtaken in the market by Aaron Taylor-Johnson (13%) who wasn't even meant to be in the running as news of the shortlist broke.
Paul Mescal | 'Yes' 6¢ | 5% chance
Irish actor Paul Mescal can do no wrong right now. Since appearing in Aftersun, he's since gone on a stellar run that has included Gladiator II and Hamnet. He is currently filming a new biopic (one of four) of The Beatles where he will play Paul McCartney.
Mescal would probably be the best-known actor from the shortlist. But does he have the time and commitment to a series of 007 outings?
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
🎞️Casting 007: How the Next James Bond Will Unfold
Speculation on the next Bond actor has been rife since Amazon MGM Studios took over the franchise. Here are some things we know so far:
- The Takeover: Amazon has purchased MGM, owners of the Bond franchise.
- The Creative Team: Amy Pascal and David Heyman have been put in charge of production. With Spider-Man and Harry Potter, the pair were responsible for two of the biggest film franchises ever.
- The Writer: British writer, Steven Knight, (Peaky Blinders) has been hired for screenwriting duties. Could Peaky Blinders star, Cillian Murphy, be a value shot at 3¢?
- Casting: Auditions for 007 officially began in May 2026. The first round of auditions ended in June, with a new set due to begin this summer. We do know that producers are looking for someone young enough to carry the franchise for three to four movies.
- The "Shortlist": In August, a "shortlist" was reported to have been reached. Though none of the actors on it are a surprise, there are no superstar standouts.
- Production Timeline: Filming on the first new Bond film since No Time to Die is expected to begin in 2027, with Denis Villeneuve signed on to direct.
🤵Trading the Tuxedo: How to Play the Bond Market
James Bond casting markets are information wars. Here is how to navigate the volatility:
- Watch the "trades": In this context, "trades" refers to industry publications such as Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Deadline. Kalshi’s rules specifically cite Variety as a resolution source. If a reputable reporter drops a "shortlist" article, the market will react instantly.
- Be wary of media “hot right now” announcements: Jacob Elordi was hot stuff a few months ago following his Chanel ad. However, sentiment in the Aussie nosedived as traders pivtoed toward lesser-known Brits.
- Sell high, buy low: With such a volatile market, actors quickly come into favor before exiting faster than a Bond villain. Consider buying the ‘No’ first before flipping your trades when the prices dive. Now that the "shortlist" has dropped, be very careful about a congested market.
- Don’t dismiss the other Bond markets: Kalshi doesn't just have prediction markets for the next 007. You can also buy and sell contracts on which actress will be next to take on one of cinema's most coveted roles. Have a look at the latest Bond girl odds to find the best value plays available now.