Will Hull City’s sensational start to the EPL season continue this weekend, or is an underperforming Aston Villa about to find some form and show the Tigers what life at this level is all about?
My top Hull City vs. Aston Villa predictions favor the away team, with a low-scoring encounter more likely than a goals bonanza.
Read on for my free picks for Saturday, Sept. 5, with kickoff at 12:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
| Top Pick: Aston Villa moneyline |
51% |
| Combo | 3.25x |
Hull City vs Aston Villa picks and predictions
My Hull City vs Aston Villa top pick: Aston Villa moneyline (51% probability)
Never in their wildest dreams would Hull City have imagined that their EPL season would begin with two straight wins, yet that's exactly what's happened.
A fortnight ago, the newly-promoted Tigers recorded a stunning 2-0 triumph over Manchester United. A late winner then secured a 1-0 victory at Coventry City last weekend.
Pre-season favorites for relegation, Hull played with great energy at home to Manchester United, and will look to do the same here.
Aston Villa have lost their opening two games and are yet to even score. There were signs of improvement last weekend, however. Sure, they lost 1-0, but the defeat was against the champions, Arsenal, and Villa produced periods of good football.
I expect Aston Villa to win here. Playing away from home should suit them: Hull risk being pulled forward by the roar of the home crowd, and Villa are expert at plotting a path towards goal on the break.
Aston Villa were fourth in the EPL final standings last season. They are better than their current point total suggests, and their results will eventually prove as much. That process will start this weekend.
Hull City vs Aston Villa same-game parlay (SGP)
Aston Villa moneyline
Under 2.5
Hull City have scored three times in two games, but their Expected Goals (xG) tell a different story. The Tigers’ xG was 1.01 vs Manchester United, and just 0.71 at Coventry last weekend.
Aston Villa’s xG was a dismal 0.28 when losing 4-0 at Brighton & Hove Albion on opening weekend, albeit they played with 10 men for more than half of the match after Brazilian midfielder Joao Gomes was sent off.
However, against Arsenal last weekend, Villa’s xG was barely any better at 0.34.
Hull City vs Aston Villa odds
 Hull City |
 Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| 24% | Moneyline | 51% |
| 26% | Draw | 26% |
| Over 2.5 54% |
Total | Under 2.5 54% |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Predictions.
How to watch Hull City vs Aston Villa
| Location | The MKM Stadium, Hull, England |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 |
| Time | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Weather | 67F, 14 mph winds, 10% PoP. |
Hull City vs Aston Villa key injuries
Hull City: Hughes CB (Out), Gyabi CM (Out), Gelhardt ST (Doubtful).
Aston Villa: Joao Gomes CM (Suspended), Onana CM (Out), Manzambi (AM), Madjo ST (Out).